The Australian dollar has rallied on Thursday, breaking above the 50 day EMA initially. However, we are starting to see a bit of supply here in the Aussie.
The Australian dollar rallied initially during the trading session on Thursday, but it seems to be struggling a bit with the 50 day EMA. Because of this, we could be getting ready to see a bit of a pullback, and I think that in the short term are probably going to go looking towards the 0.71 level, possibly even down to the 0.70 level after that. Ultimately, this is a market that has recently broken through an uptrend line, something that we are starting to see in several of the major pairs. That uptrend line should now be resistance, so I believe at this point we will continue to struggle to break out. To the downside, the area underneath will be difficult to break through, and if we can break down below the 200 day EMA, it opens up a huge move to the downside.
To the upside, if we were to break above the uptrend line, then it is likely that we could go towards the 0.73 level. All things been equal, this is a market that looks as if it is in the beginning part of a trend change, but keep in mind that the Australian dollar has a little bit of insulation due to the fact that it is highly levered to the Chinese economy, so it gets a bit of a “pass” sometimes when people are concerned. However, this is obviously a market that is on the precipice of doing something rather impressive, so pay close attention.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.