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Christopher Lewis

The Australian dollar has got a little bit of a boost on Friday going into the weekend, as perhaps we are trying to recover but at the end of the day there is still significant resistance that comes into play near the 0.7350 level, and at this point in time it is likely that we will continue to see a lot of resistance in that general vicinity. In fact, by de facto position right now is that we are looking at the market trying to retest the bottom that we just broke down from. Ultimately, I do think that this market drops from here, perhaps down to the 50 day EMA or even as low as the 0.70 level as the world heads more into a “risk off mentality” that it had been.

AUD/USD Video 16.11.20

After all, in a week where we got good news about a 90% efficacy rating for a vaccine, we still have not had an explosion of risk appetite to the upside with the exception of Monday itself. The fact that risk appetite cannot hang on tells me that there are still a lot of things that concern people in that environment, the Australian dollar is not going to farewell over the longer term. I am not necessarily calling for some type of major breakdown, I just think that we are probably going to continue in the same 300 point range we had been in over the last month or two. With that, I think there is more downside risk than up and that is essentially what trading is about, playing the odds.

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