AUD/USD Weekly Forecast – Australian Dollar Has a Volatile Week

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 08-01-2024

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar during the course of the week has fallen significantly, but it has recovered nicely, especially on Friday. With that being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where the market is going to continue to see a lot of choppy behavior. And when you zoom out on the weekly chart, there are a couple of areas worth paying attention to, with the 0.65 level offering support and the 0.69 level above it offering resistance.

We’re basically in the middle of it, so I don’t know if longer term traders are going to find this market particularly enticing. Those two levels are worth paying close attention to though, and if we do approach either one, then you can at least start to pay close attention to price action. If we were to break above the 0.70 area, then this is a market that could really start to take off to the upside. In that scenario, you would probably see weakness in the US dollar across the board.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think is in the middle of a larger trading range, essentially meaning that we are at roughly “fair value.” Longer term traders will find this very unattractive, and therefore they will probably be relegated to looking for the market to go to either the top or the bottom of the range. Keep in mind that a lot of this is driven by interest rate differentials and of course what bond traders are doing. There is a certain amount of fear out there, so that keeps a bid for the US dollar, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve looks like it is softening it stands.

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