The Australian dollar has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week to reach towards the 0.7150 level. This has been a nice recovery in what had been a very negative market.
The Australian dollar has rallied quite significantly during the course of the trading week, bouncing from the psychologically and structurally important 0.70 level. By bouncing from there, the market did save the Australian dollar, lease for the short term, and therefore it is likely that we continue to see this market try to recover. The question now is whether or not it can continue to do so? I think a lot of this comes down to the strength of the greenback in general, and it is worth noting that the Australian dollar has been oversold.
I anticipate that there should be a nice selling opportunity above, so the longer-term trader may be waiting to see what happens near the 0.7250 region. At that point, if we search the selloff and get a negative candlestick next week, I think we make another attempt to get down to the 0.70 level. Obviously, if we break down below the 0.70 level, then it is likely that we will break down rather significantly. In fact, it is at the 0.70 level that I become aggressively short for a longer-term trade.
If we suddenly take off and clear the 200 week EMA on a weekly close, then I think the Australian dollar will rally, probably heading into the first quarter of next year. A lot of this is going to come down to whether or not inflation takes hold, and whether or not the Federal Reserve is looked at through the prism of tightening quicker than originally suggested. There are questions about their now that CPI has, so strong.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.