AUDUSD Forecast – Australian Dollar Gives Up Some of His Gains

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 12.04.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking toward the 0.67 level before selling off again. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of overhead pressure, and this of course makes quite a bit of sense that we would see this market drought, due to the fact that there has been so much noise in the general vicinity, and of course all of the fundamental reasons that you have to think about the Australian dollar.

The Australian dollar of course is levered to the commodity markets, which by extension are levered to global growth. With this being the case, the market is likely to see a lot of hesitation, as inflation is raging across the world and while it can be good for commodities, the reality is we are also seeing a lack of growth. A lack of growth obviously will drive down demand for a lot of the assets to come out of Australia such as iron, aluminum, copper, etc. Another thing to keep in mind is that the Australian dollar is highly levered to the Chinese economy, so you need to pay close attention to it.

If we do break above the 0.67 level, then we could see a run toward the 50-Day EMA, which is sloping lower and will more likely than not cause a bit of technical resistance. After that, we have the 200-Day EMA which is near the 0.68 level, which is the top of the previous range. The 200-Day EMA is obviously an important technical indicator that people pay attention to, so that of course is going to come into the picture as well. All things being equal, this is a market that I think you continue to fade rallies, and if we can break down below the 0.6550 level, it opens up quite a bit more selling, down to the 0.64 level, followed by the 0.63 level after that. Ultimately, the US dollar course is a currency that people run toward in times of fear, which I think is part of what we are seeing.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.