AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD climbed 56 points to trade at 0.9178 taking advantage of the weaker US dollar and data this morning that showed inflation was lower than last month. The Aussie is ½ US cent higher after recent economic data from the United States raised concern about the strength of the American economy.

The US producer price index (PPI) for July was released, showing an unchanged result for the month. The PPI measures the price of goods at the farm or factory gate before transport and other costs are added. The flat PPI result caused the US dollar to fall, pushed the gold price up, and boosted the Australian dollar. Such small price increases give the Federal Reserve latitude to prop up the economy with near-zero interest rates and bond purchases. Indeed, the central bank’s latest statement highlighted that inflation persistently below its 2 per cent target could pose a risk for the economy. Fed officials, who focus on other measures of inflation, are still counting on inflation to move closer to their objective by next year. 

Business Confidence in Australia decreased to -3 in July of 2013 from 0 in June of 2013. Business Confidence in Australia is reported by the National Australia Bank. Australia Business Confidence averaged 5.79 from 1997 until 2013, reaching an all-time high of 21.10 in May of 2002 and a record low of -31.60 in January of 2009. The NAB monthly survey of business confidence is based on a telephone survey of around 350 small, medium and large size Australian companies. The Survey measures the expectations of business conditions for the upcoming month and is a simple average of trading, profitability and employment indices, reported by respondents for their company as reported in the AU Business Spectator.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD