Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gained a few points to trade at 0.7352 as the US dollar tumbled on dovish Federal Reserve minutes released late
The AUD/USD gained a few points to trade at 0.7352 as the US dollar tumbled on dovish Federal Reserve minutes released late on Wednesday. Fears that Chinese growth, which carried the global economy following the international financial crisis of 2008, is slowing in the long term are affecting the outlook for many industries, with the commodities sector among the hardest-hit.
Minutes from last month’s Fed monetary policy meeting showed officials in broad agreement widely agreed that the economy was nearing the point where interest rates should move higher.
But they also noted lagging inflation and a weak global economy posed too big a risk to commit to “liftoff”, leading some investors to question the likelihood of a rate hike in September.
Market expectations of a rate hike as early as September receded in New York trading overnight after minutes from the July policy meeting indicated the Fed is closer to raising interest rates but that employment needs to improve further.
On Thursday morning, Westpac market strategist Imre Speizer said the Australian dollar would remain vulnerable to further drops in the next few weeks.
Capital Economics chief US economist Paul Ashworth said the selling off the greenback, which drove the Australian dollar up, was “a bit overdone” as the Fed minutes did not rule out a September rate hike.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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USD |
FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks |
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EUR |
German PPI (MoM) (Jul) |
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-0.1% |
-0.1% |
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JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
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USD |
FOMC Member Williams Speaks |
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Friday, August 21, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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CNY |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
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47.7 |
47.8 |
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EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
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51.7 |
51.8 |
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EUR |
German Services PMI (Aug) |
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53.9 |
53.8 |
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EUR |
Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
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52.2 |
52.4 |
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EUR |
Markit Composite PMI (Aug) |
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53.8 |
53.9 |
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EUR |
Services PMI (Aug) |
|
54.0 |
54.0 |
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CAD |
Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
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2.4% |
2.3% |
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CAD |
Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) |
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0.0% |
0.0% |
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CAD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) |
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0.5% |
0.9% |
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CAD |
CPI (MoM) (Jul) |
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0.1% |
0.2% |
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CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) |
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0.2% |
1.0% |
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USD |
Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
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54.0 |
53.8 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt
Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug