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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 21, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 05:40 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gained a few points to trade at 0.7352 as the US dollar tumbled on dovish Federal Reserve minutes released late

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 21, 2015 – Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 21, 2015 - Forecast
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 21, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gained a few points to trade at 0.7352 as the US dollar tumbled on dovish Federal Reserve minutes released late on Wednesday. Fears that Chinese growth, which carried the global economy following the international financial crisis of 2008, is slowing in the long term are affecting the outlook for many industries, with the commodities sector among the hardest-hit.

Minutes from last month’s Fed monetary policy meeting showed officials in broad agreement widely agreed that the economy was nearing the point where interest rates should move higher.

But they also noted lagging inflation and a weak global economy posed too big a risk to commit to “liftoff”, leading some investors to question the likelihood of a rate hike in September.

Market expectations of a rate hike as early as September receded in New York trading overnight after minutes from the July policy meeting indicated the Fed is closer to raising interest rates but that employment needs to improve further.

On Thursday morning, Westpac market strategist Imre Speizer said the Australian dollar would remain vulnerable to further drops in the next few weeks.

Capital Economics chief US economist Paul Ashworth said the selling off the greenback, which drove the Australian dollar up, was “a bit overdone” as the Fed minutes did not rule out a September rate hike.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Williams Speaks  

 

 

 

   

 

audusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 21, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 

 

47.7

47.8

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  

 

51.7

51.8

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (Aug)  

 

53.9

53.8

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  

 

52.2

52.4

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (Aug)  

 

53.8

53.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Aug)  

 

54.0

54.0

 

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

 

2.4%

2.3%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.5%

0.9%

 

 

  CAD

 

CPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.2%

1.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  

 

54.0

53.8

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

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