AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 5, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 4, 2015, 03:52 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gained 7 points after falling to its lowest level in years. The Aussie is trading at 0.7292 as the greenback

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 5, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gained 7 points after falling to its lowest level in years. The Aussie is trading at 0.7292 as the greenback gained in the early session A jump in Australian retail sales helped move the Aussie off the bottom. Traders are awaiting the decision by the RBA although no changes are expected but Glenn Steven’s comments may send the Aussie lower. Australian retail sales beat forecasts in June with the biggest rise in four months while household spending for the whole second quarter looked to have boosted economic growth, an upbeat outcome that gave the local dollar a lift.

However, other data showed the country’s trade deficit exploded to almost A$10 billion (S$10.1 billion) last quarter as sliding prices for major commodity exports sucked money out of the economy.

That drag on national incomes is a major reason the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might yet have to cut rates again, even though it risks further stoking home prices.

The Australian dollar approached a six-year low before the Reserve Bank of Australia sets monetary policy and releases preliminary economic forecasts on Tuesday.

The Aussie slid with other commodity currencies on Monday after disappointing manufacturing data in China since Aug 1 weekend deepened concerns that demand for raw materials will wane in the world’s second-largest economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)	0.7%	0.5%	0.4%
AUD	Trade Balance (Jun)	-2.933B	-3.100B	-2.677B
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (Aug)		2.00%	2.00%
AUD	RBA Rate Statement

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	Services PMI (Jul)		58.0	58.5
USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change		215K	237K
USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)		56.2	56.0