AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – January 11, 2016 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD soared 51 points to hold keep itself above the 0.70 level after having a tough session on Thursday. This morning retail sale met expectations with an upward revision to the previous months giving the Aussie traders a bit of hope. The Australian dollar has fallen to a three-month low as concerns about the Chinese economy push the currency and share markets even lower this week.

Australian retail sales have met expectations in November, rising 0.4% to a record-high level of $24.774 billion. October’s increase, initially reported as 0.5%, was also revised up to 0.6%.

It was the fourth month in succession that sales have increased, and 17th of the past 18. From a year earlier, sales grew by 4.34%, an acceleration on the 3.93% pace seen in October.

Early on Friday morning it fell as low as 0.6981 its weakest level since September 30. The Chinese share market suffered another large fall on Thursday, down seven per cent before authorities suspended trading.

Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Jason Wong said trading was closed early to avoid panic selling.

“But it won’t avoid the fact that China’s stock market is among the world’s most expensive, the macroeconomic fundamentals are deteriorating and investors have been spooked by the incessant fudges to the market by the regulators,” he said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, January 11, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Jan 12 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Jan 12 11:00 Netherlands Euro 1-1.5bn 2.5% 2033 DSL

Jan 12 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 Inflation-linked Gilt

Jan 12 n/a UK Announces details of Gilt auction on Jan 20

Jan 12 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Jan 13 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Jan 13 11:10 Italy Holds BTP

Jan 13 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Feb 2026 Bund

Jan 13 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Jan 14 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Jan 14 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Jan 14 N/A US Announces details of 10-yr TIPS auction on Jan 21

Jan 18 11:00 Belgium Holds OLO auction