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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gave up 16 points to trade at 0.8767 after home loans came in well under expectations. The Reserve Bank of

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gave up 16 points to trade at 0.8767 after home loans came in well under expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has weighed in yet again on the introduction of macro prudential policies to slow down lending activity. In a speech yesterday, the RBA’s Head of Financial Stability Luci Ellis — who has been critical of such intervention in the past — noted that “risks had been building” and that the RBA and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) are discussing “steps that could be taken to reinforce sound lending practices”.

Only a couple of months ago the RBA derided macro prudential policies as the “latest fad”. Now they seem completely on board, with RBA assistant governor Malcolm Edey last week noting that he expected “an announcement before the end of year”. What prompted the change in direction is unclear but it’s a welcome development.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a selloff across Asian stock exchanges, pointing to risk aversion as the catalyst behind the decline.

The details of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, released Wednesday, gave investors further reason to hesitate from re-establishing bullish dollar bets.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Meeting

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

Tertiary Industry

-0.1%

0.2%

-0.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans

-0.9%

0.1%

0.3%

 

 

audusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Holiday

Japan – Health-Sports Day

 

 

Holiday

Canada – Thanksgiving Day

 

  NZD

 

FPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

 

0.3%

 

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Sep)

 

 

9.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Sep)

 

 

-2.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

 

49.83B

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 13 09:00 Norway T-bill auction

Oct 13 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 13 09:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 6M Bubill (Apr 2015) auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

 

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