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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD is in the red at 0.8759 down by 5 points after Governor Stevens talked down the currency and economy. The

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is in the red at 0.8759 down by 5 points after Governor Stevens talked down the currency and economy. The stronger NAB business confidence report limited the drop. The Chinese HSBC PMI manufacturing data was better than expected.  The U.S. dollar climbed to a one-week high against its major peers as an unexpected rise in the U.S. cost of living in September underscored the strength of the world’s largest economy amid a slowdown in global growth.

Activity in China’s manufacturing sector has edged up to 50.4 in October, up from 50.2 in the final reading for September. The reading above 50 on the survey points to expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. HSBC chief China economist Hongbin Qu said both domestic and external demand showed some signs of slowing although both remained in expansion territory.

Business confidence held steady in the September quarter, while conditions edged slightly higher. According to the National Australia Bank’s quarterly business survey, business confidence held steady at 6 points, in line with the result in the previous quarter. Business conditions rose slightly to 3 points, from 1 in the previous quarter, while expected business conditions in the next 12 months also edged higher, lifting to 25 from 24 in the prior quarter.

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens told a conference in Sydney on Thursday that he’s concerned about the rapid rise in loans to people investing in the housing sector. The RBA says that investors are pushing up prices and shutting owner occupiers and first-home buyers out of the market.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens  

 

 

 

 

 

  NZD

 

CPI (YoY) (Q2)

1.0%

1.3%

1.6%

 

 

  NZD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q2)

0.3%

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Foreign Bonds Buying

-1,169.1B

 

784.2B

 

 

  JPY

 

Foreign Investments

-412.6B

 

-254.6B

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Quarterly Business

6

 

6

 

 

  JPY

 

Manufacturing PMI

52.8

52.1

51.7

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Mfg. PMI  

50.4

50.3

50.2

 

 

AUDUSD(15 minutes)20141023054531

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM)

 

-700M

-472M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY)

 

1,510M

2,020M

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.7%

0.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

3.0%

3.2%

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (Sep)

 

470K

504K

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (MoM)

 

-5.8%

18.0%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

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