Advertisement
Advertisement
AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 30 – May 4, 2012, Forecast
By:
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn't in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD ended the week at 1.0472 soaring as the USD lost momentum after the final blow, on a disappointing GDP report, showing the economy was only growing at a rate of 2.2%, when economists had expected a data to show a rate of 2.5% after the 4th quarter last year of 3.%
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Apr 27, 2012 |
1.0472 |
1.0370 |
1.0475 |
1.0354 |
0.99% |
|
Apr 26, 2012 |
1.0369 |
1.0359 |
1.0399 |
1.0350 |
0.10% |
|
Apr 25, 2012 |
1.0359 |
1.0334 |
1.0374 |
1.0307 |
0.24% |
|
Apr 24, 2012 |
1.0334 |
1.0308 |
1.0336 |
1.0248 |
0.26% |
|
Apr 23, 2012 |
1.0307 |
1.0382 |
1.0383 |
1.0272 |
-0.72% |
The Aussie traded up most of the week on strong indications that the RBA would cut rates at their next meeting.
A rate cut to 4.0 per cent from 4.25 per cent is widely expected after March quarter inflation figures, out on Tuesday, were much lower than expected.
The US Federal Reserve’s policy making committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), met on Tuesday and Wednesday (US time) and released a short statement saying the American economy was growing moderately.
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke also indicated the FOMC was prepared to take action to stimulate the American economy.
Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast
|
CAD |
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.5% |
1.0% |
-0.8% |
|
||
|
USD |
|
New Home Sales |
328K |
320K |
353K |
|
||
|
GBP |
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
||
|
GBP |
|
GDP (YoY) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
||
|
USD |
|
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-1.1% |
0.5% |
1.9% |
|
||
|
USD |
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
||
|
NZD |
|
Interest Rate Decision |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
||
|
USD |
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
388K |
375K |
389K |
|
||
|
USD |
|
GDP (QoQ) |
2.2% |
2.5% |
3.0% |
|
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Yuan, Yen, Aussie and the Kiwi
|
Apr 29 |
9:00pm |
NZD |
NBNZ Business Confidence |
33.8 |
||
|
Apr 30 |
9:00pm |
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI |
53.6 |
53.1 |
|
|
May 1 |
12:30am |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
4.00% |
4.25% |
|
|
12:30am |
AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
||||
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
53.0 |
53.4 |
||
|
May 2 |
8:15am |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
179K |
209K |
|
|
6:45pm |
NZD |
Employment Change q/q |
0.5% |
0.1% |
||
|
6:45pm |
NZD |
Unemployment Rate |
6.2% |
6.3% |
||
|
May 3 |
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
382K |
388K |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
55.5 |
56.0 |
||
|
9:30pm |
AUD |
RBA Monetary Policy Statement |
||||
|
May 4 |
8:30am |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
176K |
120K |
|
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.2% |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 01 09:30 UK
May 02 09:10 Sweden
May 02 09:30 Portugal
May 02 13:00 US
May 03 08:30 Spain
May 03 08:50 France
May 03 09:10 Sweden
May 03 09:30 UK
May 08 09:15 Austria
May 08 09:30 Belgium
May 08 14:30 UK
May 08 15:30 Italy
May 08 17:00 US
May 09 09:10 Sweden
May 09 09:30 Germany
May 09 09:30 Swiss
May 09 09:30 UK
May 09 14:30 Sweden
May 09 15:30 Italy
May 09 17:00 US
May 10 15:00 US
May 10 17:00 US
May 11 09:10 Italy BOT auction
May 11 10:00 Belgium
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
Advertisement