Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0427 down for the week from the high of 1.0490 but still in strong territory. The US dollar emerged strong at the end of the week, after manufacturing’s, unemployment and housing data printed above expectation. Eco data for OZ was a bit sporadic and gave mixed signals, although only low level releases were scheduled during the week. The commodity currencies remained benefactors of the resolution of the EU-Greek crisis after the EU Ministers on Monday completed a bailout package for Greece.
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
Nov 30, 2012 |
1.0427 |
1.0428 |
1.0447 |
1.0403 |
-0.01% |
Nov 29, 2012 |
1.0428 |
1.0473 |
1.0480 |
1.0418 |
-0.44% |
Nov 28, 2012 |
1.0474 |
1.0443 |
1.0481 |
1.0428 |
0.30% |
Nov 27, 2012 |
1.0443 |
1.0471 |
1.0490 |
1.0436 |
-0.27% |
Nov 26, 2012 |
1.0471 |
1.0457 |
1.0478 |
1.0439 |
0.13% |
The RBA will have a firm feel for Q3 GDP that gets released just hours after its rate decision, and Bloomberg consensus expects a rise of between 3.1-3.4% over the prior quarter that would signal a further deceleration in growth from the prior two quarters. Retail sales, jobs, and trade round out the Australian data hits. China’s private sector purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector is expected to creep slightly further above the critical 50 line that divides expansion from contraction.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of November 26 – 30 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Nov. 26 |
NZD |
Trade Balance |
-718M |
-536M |
-775M |
Nov. 27 |
NZD |
Inflation Expectations (QoQ) |
2.3% |
2.3% |
|
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
1.5% |
-0.5% |
1.7% |
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.0% |
-0.6% |
9.2% |
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
73.7 |
73.0 |
73.1 |
Nov. 28 |
AUD |
Construction Work Done (QoQ) |
1.7% |
2.7% |
0.9% |
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
368K |
390K |
369K |
|
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
-1.2% |
-0.7% |
0.4% |
Nov. 29 |
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
3.4% |
-3.7% |
|
|
AUD |
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) |
2.8% |
2.0% |
3.4% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
393K |
390K |
416K |
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.0% |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3287K |
3323K |
3357K |
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
5.2% |
0.8% |
0.4% |
|
NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) |
-1.5% |
7.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.8% |
-2.2% |
-4.1% |
Nov. 30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
50.4 |
50.5 |
49.9 |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011
Average: 0.9898 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 03 |
00:30 |
AUD |
-2.5% |
-0.7% |
|
|
00:30 |
AUD |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
51.3 |
51.7 |
|
Dec. 04 |
00:30 |
AUD |
-2.0% |
7.8% |
|
|
00:30 |
AUD |
-14.8B |
-11.8B |
|
|
03:30 |
AUD |
3.00% |
3.25% |
|
Dec. 05 |
00:30 |
AUD |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
125K |
158K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
2.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.9% |
-0.1% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
53.5 |
54.2 |
|
|
20:00 |
NZD |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
Dec. 07 |
00:30 |
AUD |
-2.05B |
-1.46B |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 03 10:30 Germany
Dec 04 01:30 Japan
Dec 04 10:30 Belgium
Dec 04 15:30 UK
Dec 05 09:30 Spain
Dec 05 10:30 Germany
Dec 05 11:00 Norway
Dec 05 15:30 Sweden
Dec 06 01:30 Japan
Dec 06 09:50 France
Dec 06 16:00 US
Dec 07 16:30 Italy