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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 – 7, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 – 7, 2012, Forecast
AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 - 7, 2012, Forecast
AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 – 7, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD closed the week at 1.0427 down for the week from the high of 1.0490 but still in strong territory. The US dollar emerged strong at the end of the week, after manufacturing’s, unemployment and housing data printed above expectation. Eco data for OZ was a bit sporadic and gave mixed signals, although only low level releases were scheduled during the week. The commodity currencies remained benefactors of the resolution of the EU-Greek crisis after the EU Ministers on Monday completed a bailout package for Greece.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Nov 30, 2012

1.0427

1.0428

1.0447

1.0403

-0.01%

Nov 29, 2012

1.0428

1.0473

1.0480

1.0418

-0.44%

Nov 28, 2012

1.0474

1.0443

1.0481

1.0428

0.30%

Nov 27, 2012

1.0443

1.0471

1.0490

1.0436

-0.27%

Nov 26, 2012

1.0471

1.0457

1.0478

1.0439

0.13%

The RBA will have a firm feel for Q3 GDP that gets released just hours after its rate decision, and Bloomberg consensus expects a rise of between 3.1-3.4% over the prior quarter that would signal a further deceleration in growth from the prior two quarters.  Retail sales, jobs, and trade round out the Australian data hits. China’s private sector purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector is expected to creep slightly further above the critical 50 line that divides expansion from contraction.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of November 26 – 30 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Nov. 26 

NZD

Trade Balance 

-718M

-536M

-775M

Nov. 27

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.3%

 

2.3%

 

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

1.5%

-0.5%

1.7%

 

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.0%

-0.6%

9.2%

 

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

73.7

73.0

73.1

Nov. 28

AUD

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

1.7%

2.7%

0.9%

 

USD

New Home Sales 

368K

390K

369K

 

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.2%

-0.7%

0.4%

Nov. 29

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

3.4%

 

-3.7%

 

AUD

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

2.8%

2.0%

3.4%

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

393K

390K

416K

 

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

2.7%

2.8%

2.0%

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3287K

3323K

3357K

 

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

5.2%

0.8%

0.4%

 

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

-1.5%

 

7.6%

 

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

-0.4%

-0.4%

 

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.8%

-2.2%

-4.1%

 Nov. 30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

 

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

-0.2%

0.2%

0.8%

 

USD

Chicago PMI 

50.4

50.5

49.9

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 03

00:30

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

-2.5%

-0.7%

 

00:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

51.3

51.7

Dec. 04

00:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-2.0%

7.8%

 

00:30

AUD

Current Account 

-14.8B

-11.8B

 

03:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

3.25%

Dec. 05

00:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.6%

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

125K

158K

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.7%

1.9%

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

-0.9%

-0.1%

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.5

54.2

 

20:00

NZD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

2.50%

Dec. 07

00:30

AUD

Trade Balance 

-2.05B

-1.46B

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 03 10:30 Germany 

Dec 04 01:30 Japan 

Dec 04 10:30 Belgium 

Dec 04 15:30 UK 

Dec 05 09:30 Spain 

Dec 05 10:30 Germany 

Dec 05 11:00 Norway 

Dec 05 15:30 Sweden 

Dec 06 01:30 Japan 

Dec 06 09:50 France 

Dec 06 16:00 US 

Dec 07 16:30 Italy

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