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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 12 – 16, 2014 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD climbed this week after strong data releases supported the currency and lackluster Chinese data had little
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD climbed this week after strong data releases supported the currency and lackluster Chinese data had little effect. The Australian dollar flirted with the US94c mark for the first time in three weeks overnight as investors cheered better-than expected local jobs numbers and improved trade figures out of China. It came as one analyst tipped a rise back to US97c before the end of the current quarter. The Australian dollar was last at that level in October 2013. XCM market analyst David De Ferranti said the central bank’s decision to keep its accommodative stance is warranted, but leaves the dollar with little to build on. “The RBA’s statement today suggests the Bank is in no hurry to start raising rates, which may leave the Australian Dollar lacking fuel to extend its recent gains,” he said.
The local unit will have little reason to stir next week, according to Mr De Ferranti. with the federal budget to dominate the early part of the week. “NAB Business Confidence figures and China retail sales data headline the calendar in terms of local and regional data that may offer some cues to local unit.
Recent readings for domestic economic leading indicators, including this week’s disappointing retail sales data have been soft, and a further deterioration may weigh on the Aussie.”
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
May 09, 2014 |
0.9355 |
0.9369 |
0.9379 |
0.9347 |
-0.15% |
|
May 08, 2014 |
0.9369 |
0.9322 |
0.9394 |
0.9321 |
0.49% |
|
May 07, 2014 |
0.9323 |
0.9349 |
0.9355 |
0.9319 |
-0.28% |
|
May 06, 2014 |
0.9349 |
0.9284 |
0.9368 |
0.9271 |
0.70% |
|
May 05, 2014 |
0.9284 |
0.9274 |
0.9290 |
0.9253 |
0.11% |
The Australian dollar received a boost from news the unemployment rate was steady at 5.8 per cent in April, against expectations for a lift to 5.9 per cent. Adding to the positive sentiment was data that showed China’s exports and imports rose marginally in April, representing a rare recent piece of good news out of Beijing, while US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen reiterated rates would remain low for an extended period.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to present
Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011
Average: 1.0292 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.9114 USD Jun 30, 2013
Major Economic Events for the week of May 5 – 9 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 05 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-3.5% |
1.0% |
-5.4% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
48.1 |
48.4 |
48.3 |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
55.2 |
54.1 |
53.1 |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment |
51.3 |
53.6 |
|
|
May 06 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
0.731B |
1.200B |
1.257B |
|
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-40.38B |
-40.30B |
-41.87B |
|
|
NZD |
Employment Change (QoQ) |
0.9% |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
May 07 |
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Services PMI |
51.4 |
51.9 |
|
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
-1.7% |
-1.0% |
2.3% |
|
|
USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) |
4.2% |
2.6% |
-0.4% |
|
|
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
2.612% |
2.720% |
|
|
May 08 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
14.2K |
6.8K |
22.0K |
|
|
AUD |
Full Employment Change |
14.2K |
-22.8K |
|
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
18.45B |
13.90B |
7.71B |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Exports (YoY) |
0.9% |
-1.7% |
-6.6% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Imports (YoY) |
0.8% |
-2.3% |
-11.3% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
319K |
325K |
345K |
|
May 07 |
CNY |
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
2.0% |
2.4% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
-2.0% |
-1.8% |
-2.3% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
|
USD |
JOLTs Job Openings |
4.01M |
4.21M |
4.13M |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 12 |
JPY |
0.305T |
0.613T |
|
|
|
AUD |
4 |
||
|
|
USD |
114.0B |
-36.9B |
|
|
May 13 |
AUD |
-1.5% |
2.3% |
|
|
|
AUD |
2.9% |
3.4% |
|
|
|
CNY |
17.7% |
17.6% |
|
|
|
CNY |
8.9% |
8.8% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
May 14 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
May 15 |
JPY |
1.0% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
JPY |
4.2% |
0.7% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
6.00 |
1.29 |
|
|
|
USD |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
USD |
85.7B |
||
|
|
USD |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
|
|
USD |
13.6 |
16.6 |
|
|
May 16 |
JPY |
0.3% |
||
|
|
USD |
1.000M |
0.997M |
|
|
|
USD |
0.983M |
0.946M |
|
|
|
USD |
-1.7% |
||
|
|
USD |
2.8% |
||
|
|
USD |
84.5 |
84.1 |
|
|
|
USD |
74.6 |
74.7 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Event
May 12 EUR German 30-y Bond Auction
May 12 GBP 30-y Bond Auction
May 12 JPY 30-y Bond Auction
May 13 EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
May 15 EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
May 16 GBP 10-y Bond Auction
May 16 GBP 30-y Bond Auction
May 21 EUR German 10-y Bond Auction
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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