AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 11 – 15, 2013 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended the week on a negative note after hitting a high of 0.9542 as strong data in China helped the Aussie climb. By midweek negative comments from the RBA and a stronger US dollar weighed the currency down. The Reserve Bank has lowered its growth forecast for 2014 from 2.5 per cent-3.5 per cent to 2 per cent-3 per cent. That is quite significant. These growth forecasts for 2014 are now consistent with our own forecasts.

It has maintained its forecast for growth in 2013 at 2.25 per cent and growth to June 2014 at 2.5 per cent. That means that whereas in August the Bank expected that growth in the second half of 2014 would reach a comfortably above-trend pace of around 3.6 per cent, it is now expecting growth in 2014’s second half of a still below-trend 2.5 per cent. On Monday, the ABS will release housing finance data for September with economists expecting a 4.3 per cent lift. Tuesday delivers the NAB survey of business confidence and conditions for October, as well as lending finance numbers for September. On Wednesday, Westpac will unveil its survey of business sentiment. Meanwhile, the ABS will release its wage price index for the third quarter, with economists tipping annualized growth of 3 per cent, as well as new motor vehicle sales for October, with a 1 to 2 per cent seasonally adjusted fall expected. Chinese exports soared above expectations this week helping to support the Aussie as well as domestic retail sales printing above forecast. 

 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 1.0292 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.9114 USD Jun 30, 2013

 

Major Economic Events for the week of November 4-8 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Nov 11 10:30 Germany

Nov 12 09:10 Holland

Nov 12 10:10 Italy

Nov 12 10:10 Norway

Nov 12 10:30 Belgium

Nov 12 15:30 UK

Nov 12 18:00 US

Nov 13 09:30 Swiss

Nov 13 10:10 Italy

Nov 13 10:10 Sweden

Nov 13 10:30 Germany

Nov 13 18:00 US

Nov 14 10:30 UK

Nov 14 16:00 US

Nov 14 18:00 US