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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis- November 30 – December 4, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 28, 2015, 10:14 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD ended the week at 0.7190 unable to hold the 0.72 level against a stronger US dollar and a declining

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis- November 30 – December 4, 2015 – Forecast

audusd weekly bnsnla
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended the week at 0.7190 unable to hold the 0.72 level against a stronger US dollar and a declining Chinese stock market. The AUD was down 0.69% on the week. Traders this week will focus on Tuesdays RBA meeting ahead of turning to the US NFP report. he Australian Dollar faces a perfect storm of volatility in the week ahead as high-profile event risk on the homegrown and the external fronts looms ahead. Monetary policy considerations are first to take center stage, only to be replaced by churn in risk sentiment trends.

The RBA is expected to keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2 percent at Tuesday’s meeting. This will put the focus on the accompanying policy statement and any forward guidance therein. A recent center-bound shift in the bank’s rhetoric degraded but has yet to destroy rate cut speculation.

Prevailing economic conditions are unlikely to have changed enough to trigger Governor Glenn Stevens and company to make a firm move out of wait-and-see mode. This points to a neutral policy statement echoing the data dependence of future actions, shifting the spotlight to the third-quarter GDP report due later in the week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

audusd

Major Economic Events for the week:

 

 

 

 

Event

 

 

Consensus

Previous

   

 

TUESDAY, DEC 01

 

 

 

 

JPY

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda

 

         

 

 

 

AUD

RBA Interest Rate Decision

 

 

2%

2%

   

 

 

 

AUD

RBA Rate Statement 

 

         

 

 

 

EUR

Unemployment Change (Nov)

 

 

-5K

-5K

   

 

 

 

EUR

Unemployment Rate s.a. (Nov)

 

 

6.4%

6.4%

   

WEDNESDAY, DEC 02

 

 

 

 

AUD

RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens

 

         

 

 

 

EUR

Consumer Price Index – Core

 

 

1.1%

1.1%

   

 

 

 

EUR

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)

 

 

0.2%

0.1%

   

 

 

 

EUR

Producer Price Index (MoM)

 

 

-0.4%

-0.3%

   

 

 

 

EUR

Producer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)

 

 

-3.2%

-3.1%

   

 

 

 

CAD

BoC Interest Rate Decision

 

   

0.5%

   

 

 

 

CAD

BOC Rate Statement 

 

         

THURSDAY, DEC 03

 

 

 

 

EUR

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec 3)

 

 

0.05%

0.05%

   

 

 

 

EUR

ECB press conference 

 

         

 

 

 

USD

Fed’s Yellen testifies 

 

         

FRIDAY, DEC 04

 

 

 

 

USD

Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

 

5%

5%

   

 

 

 

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)

 

 

200K

271K

   

 

 

 

CAD

Net Change in Employment (Nov)

 

 

0.7K

44.4K

   

 

 

 

CAD

Unemployment Rate (Nov)

 

 

7%

7%

   
                                     

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

 

 

 

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