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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 03:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD gained 31 points to reach 0.8792 after Chinese PMI numbers printed at forecast.  The Reserve Bank will now

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast
AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gained 31 points to reach 0.8792 after Chinese PMI numbers printed at forecast.  The Reserve Bank will now be mulling over its forecasts for the November statement on monetary policy which will be released on November 7.  Despite some significant changes in markets and likely the underlying forecasts for the Australian dollar and commodity prices we do not expect them to change their core views. These are that growth will be well below trend in the second half of 2014; remain below trend in 2015. The fall in the Australian dollar will impact forecast considerations? Consider the discussion on growth in the May statement where the Australian dollar had risen from TWI 69 and $US0.89 in February to TWI 71 and $US0.93 in May.

Recent statements from the RBA seem to confirm that it is likely to maintain its downbeat forecasts in the November statement.  The lower Australian dollar and the fall in the oil price are likely to see the RBA stick with its call of 2.75 per cent for underlying inflation in 2015. That forecast does match our own forecast for underlying inflation in 2015 of 2.8 per cent.

There are no major economic indicators in the coming week. But the economy is generally seen as a puzzle, and to reveal the picture behind the puzzle, there are a number of things to watch over the coming week. The consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, rose 2.3 per cent in the year to September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

The headline CPI was expected to rise by 0.4 per cent in the December quarter for an annual rate of 2.2 per cent, according to an AAP survey of 13 economists.

The ABS said seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.1 per cent in the September quarter, and was up 2.2 per cent in the 12 months to September.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 1.0292 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8890 USD October 2014

 

AUDUSD(15 minutes)20141025180441

Major Economic Events for the week of October 27-31st

Time

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Monday, October 27

 

 

Holiday

New Zealand – Labour Day

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)

 

104.3

104.7

 

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.5%

-1.0%

 

Tuesday, October 28

 

  USD

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.5%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)

 

87.0

86.0

 

Wednesday, October 29

 

  NZD

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

3.50%

3.50%

 

Thursday, October 30

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change (Oct)

 

5K

13K

 

 

  USD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

 

3.0%

4.6%

 

Friday, October 31

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

0.4%

0.3%

 

 

  CAD

 

GDP (MoM) (Aug)

 

 

 

 

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

 

 

 

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