During today’s session AUD/USD is up 0.16%, AUD/EUR is up marginally by 0.05%, AUD/GBP is up 0.07%, and AUD/JPY is up the most by 0.24%. Broad Aussie. Perhaps the momentum is building to take AUD higher across all major FX crosses.
Australian building permits were weaker than expected with an actual of -3.4% versus a -1.5% forecast. More than double. But it’s much better than the previous reading of -10.5%. Additionally, ABS data showed total dwellings approved fell 3.4% in April, with private sector houses down 1% and private sector dwelling excluding houses down 3.6%. That’s not good for household momentum.
There was disappointment in company profits data as well. It fell -1.3% qoq versus a 0.5% forecast and well below the 5.9% gain. This was attributed to mining, where profits fell 9.1%, while non-mining profits were firmer at +3.7%. So the declines weren’t broad based.
AUD/JPY is pushing higher as the Renko bricks are testing previous resistance levels. The trend is constructed fairly well with the FX pair above the 21-EMA, 50-SMA and 500-SMA. The Supertrend is also flipped green. Momentum looks good as well with the RSI above 60 and point higher while the Z-Score SMA is trending higher but not yet at exhausted levels. These AUD/JPY moves should hopefully transition into the AUD/USD pair as well.
AUD/USD is starting to get back in trend with the Renko bricks back above the 21-EMA and 50-SMA. Ideally the 21-EMA should be above the 50-SMA but we’re getting there. The Supertrend remains flipped green too. RSI is above 50 and moving higher. The only thing is the Z-Score SMA which is trend lower. That means we may be bouncing around for a little longer before we start making the move higher in the FX pair.
Resistance Levels: 0.72715, 0.74070
Medium Term Path: The road to 0.72715 is a bit choppier than expected but we’re getting there. Once AUD/USD holds above 0.72715 we can then look forward to the 0.74070 level.
Cedric Thompson, CMT, CFA, is an investment strategist with experience in asset management, corporate strategy, and multi-asset investing.