Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Meeting Looms; Can WTI Hold Above $83?

Oil News: OPEC+ Decision and Supply Risks Keep Energy in Focus

Fundamentals for oil are coming into a big week ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial on Aug. 2, where a decision is expected on a further 188,000 barrels per day increase in September supply. While the increase would mark the continuation of a gradual return of voluntary supply cuts that had been in place, recent developments have led to new supply outages linked to tensions with Iran, pushing OPEC+ production far below its quota. June output sat at 36.28 million bpd, down from before the conflict started earlier this year at nearly 43 million bpd.

In the U.S., the latest weekly Energy Information Administration report shows that commercial crude stockpiles increased 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels for the week ended on July 17, beating the expectation for a draw. The data also showed U.S. crude oil production fell slightly to 13.8 million bpd while refinery utilization stayed higher at 96.1% and demand for gasoline averaged 8.9 million bpd for the period.

In natural gas, fundamentals are strong, especially considering the expansion of U.S. LNG supply to foreign markets. On Friday, the EIA released its outlook for U.S. LNG to average 17.0 Bcf/d in 2026 before increasing to 18.5 Bcf/d in 2027 as new production comes online. On that front, Mexico is also exporting now from its Energia Costa Azul LNG facility, which has 0.4 Bcf/d and has tripled the country’s exporting power.

Additionally, conflict in the Middle East continues to loom in the market and pose a threat to global gas supplies, with Asia’s LNG prices hitting a four-month peak on concerns over shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Breakdown Below Range Signals Fresh Weakness

Natural Gas is trending in the wrong direction after dropping below the long-term support of 2.827, which price has been able to hold onto for quite some time. At the time of this analysis, price was trading at 2.788 underneath the 50-EMA (2.909) and 100-EMA (2.969), so sellers are still firmly in command. The descending trendline remains in place, and the RSI sits at around 33, which represents the prevailing downward pressure.

Support levels are at 2.781, 2.728 and 2.662. Resistance levels are at 2.827, 2.950 and 3.028. With price remaining below 2.827, it is possible for price to slip lower toward 2.728. It will need to reclaim 2.827 for buyers to take hold of the market and move price back to 2.950.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Correction Deepens Below 50-EMA

WTI Crude continues to fall as it slides below the 50-EMA (87.12), and underneath the pivot support level of 87.00. Price has dropped quickly to 83.56 in relation to the recent correction that began near 93.50. The wider ascendant channel has not been broken, yet the short-term momentum is trending in the wrong direction. The 33 reading on the RSI indicates that price is nearing an oversold condition, so the selling might be becoming too strong.

Key support levels are 83.36, 81.36, and 77.96. Resistance levels lie at 87.00, 90.53 and 93.50. Unless WTI Crude climbs back above 87.00 quickly, the bears will likely have the upper hand. If price falls below 83.36, the correction should continue to 81.36. Conversely, if price trades back above 87.00, then the bulls will be attempting to take command.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Bears Take Control Below Key Moving Averages

Following a strong bearish swing from 101.78, Brent Crude has broken underneath the 50-EMA (90.87) and 100-EMA (86.91). At the time of this analysis, price was trading at 86.59. RSI is at 34, which reflects the bearish pressure with RSI nearing oversold conditions.

Support levels are at 83.52 and 79.52. Resistance levels are at 88.12, 90.87, and 92.72. The short-term outlook for Brent Crude remains bearish as long as price trades below 88.12. Below 83.52, price will drop to 79.52. Above 88.12 is an indication that the downside pressure is waning.