Australian Dollar Forecast: Will the 4.3% Unemployment Surge Break the Aussie’s 0.7000 Floor?

The AUD/USD pair is stuck on March 19, 2026 hovering around 0.7037 as the markets wait with bated breath to see which way it’ll go next. The RBA has hiked the cash rate to a 4.10% in the face of “war-driven” inflation but a labour report that makes little sense and a US Dollar that’s suddenly gained strength have left a squeeze on the pair that’s not exactly easy to do anything about.

Now with the Strait of Hormuz conflict having been going on for three weeks , the markets are starting to wonder if the Aussie can keep going on as a “commodity haven” if there’s a sudden jump in domestic unemployment or if instead the pair will inevitably get forced lower to 0.6945.

The Jobs Paradox: 48.9K New Jobs Added, yet a 4.3% Unemployment Rate

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released a labour report that has traders scratching their heads and having trouble figuring out where they should be going.

The Huge Jobs Gain: 48.9K new jobs were added in February – nearly doubling the 26.1K from last time and way above the forecasted 20.8K.

Unemployment Takes a Strange Leap: But at the same time the unemployment rate has jumped to 4.3% (when everyone was expecting 4.1%) which is a bit confusing – it looks like a fair few new job-seekers have come into the market in an effort to fight the rising cost of living caused by oil price hikes.

RBA Feeling the Heat: The RBA has just put out its Financial Stability Review which says that while the labour market is looking pretty good the “higher-for-longer” rate environment is really starting to put a heavy burden on people trying to pay off their debts.

The DXY Power Play: FOMC Fallout and That All Important 5:30 PM Usd Catalyst

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hanging tough around 99.50 still this morning, after that somewhat hawkish FOMC statement yesterday.

Fed Policy Takes Centre Stage: Yields are staying up high now that Powell has made it pretty clear he’s prioritizing keeping prices stable, particularly given the oil price is pushing $100 after that US-Iran conflict.

The Usd Gets Boosted Again: The ‘war premium’ just keeps on favouring the dollar, trumping the Aussie’s yield appeal as shipping disruptions in the Middle East get to the point where it starts to cause some real concerns.

Next Key Trigger Due 5:30 PM: Everyone will be glued to their screens then for the latest US unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index results – 215K is what the forecasters are calling it for unemployment claims. A strong US result could well be the last nail in the coffin for the Aussie’s current support.

AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie Slips Below 0.7056 as Trendline Pressure Builds

On the technical front, the AUD/USD pair on the 2-hour chart is trading near 0.7037 after being rejected at resistance around 0.7121 and slipping back below the 0.7056 pivot. Price remains compressed between a rising support trendline near 0.7000 and a dominant descending trendline from the February high, forming a tightening structure that suggests an imminent breakout.

The 50 days moving average is flattening just above the current price, while the 200 days MA sits slightly higher, reinforcing overhead resistance between 0.7050 and 0.7090. The RSI has rolled over from near 60 toward the mid 40s, signaling fading bullish momentum without entering oversold territory.

A sustained break below 0.7018 would expose 0.6979 and potentially 0.6945. Conversely, reclaiming 0.7056 and closing above 0.7090 would shift short-term bias back toward 0.7121 and 0.7160. For now, AUD/USD trades at a technical inflection point, with volatility likely to expand soon.

Bottom Line: AUD/USD is currently “coiling” for a massive directional move; watch the 0.7018 support closely as the US labor data approaches.