Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: ETF Flows and Halving Countdown Drive Investor Sentiment

Bitcoin Halving Approaches

On Sunday (March 30), BTC gained 2.38%. Reversing a 0.44% loss from Saturday, BTC ended the week up 6.19% to $71,383. Significantly, BTC rallied 17.40% in March after surging 42.80% in February. Year-to-date, BTC was up an impressive 67%.

Supply and demand remain the price dynamic as the Bitcoin Halving event approaches. According to the Bitcoin Halving Countdown, BTC has 20 days and 20 hours until the heavily anticipated halving event.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci had this to say about the upcoming halving event and the first quarter for the US BTC-spot ETF market,

“There are approx. 1.3million bitcoin left to be mined (ever)… Will take until 2040 for that to happen. Spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated a net 200k+ bitcoin in less than 3mos. Wild.”

In the run-up to the Bitcoin halving event, the Fed interest rate path and BTC-spot ETFflow data need consideration. The US BTC-spot ETF market was closed on Friday (March 29), forcing investors to wait until April 1 to react to the Personal Income and Outlays Report (Fri) and Fed Chair Powell comments.

If the BTC-spot ETF market sees a slump in net inflows or registers total net outflows for the session, BTC could be more sensitive to US economic indicators this week.

Nonetheless, an extended trend of net inflows across the US BTC-spot ETF market could cushion the depth of a post-halving event correction. However, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) must see net outflows continue to fall to support sentiment toward the BTC-spot ETF market.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw total net outflows of $967.1 million in the week ending March 28, down from $2,001.3 million of net outflows from the previous week.

As the Bitcoin halving clock counts down, market uncertainty lingers about the SEC approving ETH-spot ETF applications.

Outlook for the ETH-spot ETF Market

On Friday, Nate Geraci shared an update from Bitwise and its ETH-spot ETF filing, saying,

“Sad we need an ETF issuer to run correlation analysis showing that govt agency approved futures tightly track price of underlying asset… And a sister govt agency has approved ETFs holding said futures, but won’t approve ETFs holding underlying. Can’t make this up.”

Bitwise had this to say about its correlation analysis,

“The results show a strong correlation between the ETH spot market and CME ETH futures market, at a level substantially similar to the findings of the SEC’s analysis in the spot bitcoin ETF approval order.”

Pressure is mounting on the SEC to approve ETH-spot ETFs as the May approval window approaches. On Friday, Ether developer firm Consensys sent a comment letter to the SEC, requesting the SEC to approve ETH-spot ETF applications. Notably, Consensys has indirect links to former SEC Chair Jay Clayton via Electric Capital, a crypto-centric venture capital company invested in Consensys.

ETH gained 3.94% on Sunday, ending the week up 5.57% to $3,647. ETH trailed BTC in March, rising by 9.13%. Year-to-date, ETH was up 58%.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A return to the $72,000 handle could give the bulls a run at the March 14 ATH of $73,808.

On Monday, BTC-spot ETF market flow data and Fed chatter need consideration.

However, a drop below the $69,000 support level could bring the $64,000 support level into play.

With a 14-Daily RSI reading of 58.57, BTC could move to the ATH of $73,808 before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sat above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A breakout from the $3,650 handle would support a move toward the $3,835 resistance level. An ETH return to the $3,835 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the $4,000 handle.

Investors should monitor ETH-spot ETF-related news.

Conversely, an ETH fall through the $3,480 support level could bring the 50-day EMA into play. A break below the 50-day EMA could give the bears a run at the $3,244 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 54.10 suggests an ETH return to the $4,000 level before entering overbought territory.