BTC-Spot ETF Market Flows Offered No Comfort
Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 2.12% on Tuesday (May 14). Partially reversing a 2.33% gain from Monday (May 13), BTC ended the session at $61,587.
Investor caution before US consumer price inflation numbers likely impacted buyer demand for BTC.
An upward trend in US producer prices in April increased uncertainty about the Fed rate path. US producer prices increased 2.2% in April year-on-year after rising 1.8% in March. Nevertheless, Fed Chair Powell talked down the chances of a Fed interest rate hike, limiting the impact on BTC price trends.
The US BTC-spot ETF market reacted to the Fed Chair Powell speech with a second successive day of total net inflows.
According to Farside Investors,
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $50.9 million.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF reported net inflows of $133.1 million, the largest since March 27.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO), Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC), Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR), and VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) also saw net inflows on Tuesday (May 14).
- Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $100.5 million, up from $66.0 million on Monday (May 13).
However, the HK BTC-spot ETF market continued to report net outflows. According to Farside Investors, the HK BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $2.0 million on Tuesday (May 14), excluding numbers from Bosera. A fourth consecutive day of net outflows for Bosera would extend the HK BTC-spot ETF outflow streak to four sessions.
Since launch, the HK BTC-spot ETF market has seen total net outflows of $20.6 million.
News of Vanguard hiring a new CEO from outside the firm as CEO was BTC-market friendly.
Incoming Vanguard CEO Raises Hopes of a Vanguard Shift in Attitudes Toward Crypto
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas shared the news, saying,
“JUST IN: Salim Ramji will be the new Vanguard CEO. He used to head up BlackRock’s global ETF business. First time ever Vanguard hired outsider as CEO. Every other one was internal star and former Bogle assistant. INTERESTING. SEMI-SHOCK.”
The appointment of Ramji as Vanguard CEO could raise hopes of a Vanguard BTC-spot ETF. Salim Ramji reportedly oversaw the filing and set up of IBIT and has been vocal about his interest in digital assets. Vanguard has not enter the BTC-spot ETF market as an issuer.
However, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst James Seyffart downplayed the hiring of Ramji, saying,
“Still think it’s unlikely that this means vanguard launches a Bitcoin ETF (at least near term). But I think Salim could reverse Vanguard’s stance on not allowing their clients to buy spot Bitcoin ETFs on their brokerage platform.”
Nevertheless, investor access to BTC-spot ETFs via the brokerage platform could boost buyer demand for BTC.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
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See all Bitcoin forecastsUS BTC-spot ETF Market and BTC Performance Contingent on US CPI Report
On Wednesday (May 15), the all-important US CPI Report could impact investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Hotter-than-expected numbers could fuel speculation about a Fed rate cut amidst concerns monetary policy is not restrictive enough to return inflation to the 2% target.
A more hawkish Fed rate path could affect buyer demand for BTC-spot ETFs and BTC price trends.
Economists forecast the annual inflation rate to ease from 3.5% to 3.4% and core inflation to fall from 3.8% to 3.6% in April.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
A BTC break above the 50-day EMA and the $64,000 resistance level would support a move toward the $69,000 resistance level. A BTC breakout from the $69,000 resistance level would bring the $73,808 all-time high into play.
The US CPI Report, FOMC member chatter, and US BTC-spot ETF flow trends need consideration.
Conversely, a BTC fall through the $60,365 support level could signal a drop to the $58,000 handle.
With a 46.38 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may drop below the $58,000 handle before entering oversold territory.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH sat below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.
An ETH move through the $3,033 resistance level could give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA would bring the $3,244 resistance level into play.
Conversely, an ETH drop below the 200-day EMA could signal a fall toward the $2,664 support level.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 38.48 suggests an ETH drop below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory.
