Ethereum (ETH) is taking a breather after a strong rally that pushed it past the $2,400 resistance. A move above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) reversed the token’s long-dated downtrend, but an ongoing transfer seems to be taking place between early and late buyers as the market awaits its next catalyst. A bull flag pattern has formed as a result of this consolidation. A break above the $2,550 area should set in motion a strong rally to the nearest target for ETH at $2,800. However, we could expect some sideways movements between $2,350 and $2,550 ahead of the FOMC’s interest rate decision.
Will Ethereum (ETH) go up or down this year?On-chain data indicates a strong recovery in DEX volumes in August, as this metric surged from $29 to $33 billion, resulting in a 14% increase. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s MVRV Ratio, which tracks the relationship between the price at which each ETH token in circulation has been bought and the token’s market value, is nearing the zero line. At -7%, we are just inches away from getting a historical buy signal that has yielded positive results four times in the past 3 years. We believe that ETH should finish the year above $3,000 if it breaks past this consolidation pattern.
What would change your view?Risks abound in today’s markets. Persistent geopolitical tensions, a hawkish Federal Reserve, not passing the Clarity Act, and low liquidity could keep a lid on ETH’s advance. Right now, the biggest risk for the top altcoin’s recovery in the near term seems to be a black swan event resulting from the ongoing conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, the odds that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points are already priced in. Hence, only a rate increase of a higher magnitude could catch the market off guard.