Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: Monday’s Outlook Tied to FOMC Speeches and ETF Flows

BTC-Spot ETF Market Flow Data Remains a Key Driver

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.11% on Sunday. Following a 1.57% rise on Saturday (May 4), BTC ended the session at $63,998.

There were no crypto market news events to influence buyer demand for BTC on Sunday. Nevertheless, it was a relatively choppy session, with BTC moving over a $1,500 price range.

Uncertainty about the demand for US BTC-spot ETFs likely limited the gains for Sunday. Before the US Jobs Report and ISM Services PMI, the US BTC-spot ETF market experienced its longest net outflow streak, spanning seven sessions.

Despite total net inflows of $378.3 million on Friday (May 3), the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $433 million in the week ending May 3.

Ethereum (ETH) also extended its winning streak to four sessions. On Sunday (May 5), ETH rose by 0.65% to end the session at $3,139. Recent crypto market chatter could rekindle hopes of an ETH-spot ETF market.

Brad Garlinghouse Labels Ethereum a Commodity

On Saturday, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse shared his thoughts about the SEC and the classification of ETH and XRP. At XRP Las Vegas 2024, Garlinghouse said that ETH and XRP are not securities. The Ripple CEO also targeted SEC Chair Gary Gensler, stating,

“The SEC is grossly wrong, and Gary Gensler is an unethical human being.”

The SEC classification of ETH as a security has impacted the chances of an ETH-spot ETF market.

Significantly, the SEC must approve or deny the applications for the VanEck Ethereum ETF and ARK 21 Shares Ethereum ETF by May and May 24, respectively.

Issuers expect the SEC to deny the applications. It could also mean that the SEC would deny the ETH-spot ETF applications for the Hashdex Nasdaq Ethereum ETH and the Grayscale Ethereum Futures Trust. These have a final deadline of May 30.

The prospects of the SEC denying the ETH-spot ETF applications left ETH with losses in the week ending May 3. ETH fell by 3.83%. However, a recent lawsuit against the SEC could change the narrative.

In April, Consensys, an Ethereum developer, filed a lawsuit against the SEC and provided two reasons for the move. These included,

“The SEC only has jurisdiction over securities and up until recently has declared that ether is not and should not be treated as a security. Furthermore, the SEC has no authority – nor should it – to regulate the technological evolution of the internet or any basic technology for that matter.”

A Consensys victory could pave the way for a US ETH-spot ETF market. However, it could be a long drawn-out process. The losing party would likely appeal against the outcome of the case.

US lawmakers may have more influence on expediting the launch of a US-ETH-spot ETF market. Over the weekend, Fox Business Journalist Eleanor Terrett turned to X (Formerly Twitter), posting,

“The House Financial Services Committee is working to get SEC Chairman Gary Gensler up on the Hill to testify this month but I’m told a date has not yet been finalized.”

ETH could become a focal point after SEC Chair Gensler’s previous classification of ETH as a commodity. However, this was before the Merge when Ethereum changed to a Proof-of-Stake protocol. The launch of Hong Kong ETH-spot ETFs could give US lawmakers reason to question the SEC Chair about ETH.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A BTC return to the $65,000 handle would give the bulls a run at the $69,000 resistance level. A break above the $69,000 resistance level would bring the $73,808 all-time high into view.

On Monday (May 6), FOMC member chatter and BTC-spot ETF market flow data need consideration.

Conversely, a BTC break below the $64,000 support level and the 50-day EMA could signal a drop to the $60,365 support level.

With a 50.03 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may return to the $70,000 handle before entering overbought territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH remained below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs confirmed the bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

An ETH break above the 50-day EMA would support a move to the $3,244 resistance level. A breakout from the $3,244 resistance level would bring the $3,480 resistance level into play.

Conversely, an ETH fall through the $3,033 support level could give the bears a run at the 200-day EMA.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 48.22 indicates an ETH drop to the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory.