BTC Steadies below $60,000
On Monday, August 12, BTC advanced by 1.08% to close at $59,411, partially reversing a 3.72% loss from Sunday, August 11. The total crypto market cap advanced by 2.37%, closing with a total market cap of $2.062 trillion.
US BTC-Spot ETF Inflows Drive BTC Demand
On Monday, US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends drove BTC demand.
According to Farside Investors:
- On Monday, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $11.8 million.
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had net outflows of $17.1 million.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported zero net flows.
However,
- Grayscale Mini Bitcoin Trust (BTC) had net inflows of $7.9 million.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw total net inflows of $35.4 million.
Excluding flow trends for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market had total net inflows of $14.4 million.
The US BTC-spot ETF market saw net inflows, with BTC tracking the Nasdaq Composite Index, which ended the Monday session up 0.21%.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
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See all Bitcoin forecastsExpert Views on the US BTC-Spot ETF Market
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the significance of the US BTC-spot ETF market, stating,
“I think if you take the ETFs out of the picture, the price of Bitcoin is like $20,000. Because it was 30,000 […] when Blackrock (BLK) filed. They started to go up because, oh, BlackRock’s coming in. Then they launched, there was little silver news, but it hung tough. Now it went up a lot because of the flows. […] You unwind all that, you’re at 30k. But you still have Mt. Gox, and somebody’s other, in Germany, and who’s there to buy it? So, I think the ETFs should be seen as nothing short of a godsend.”
Mt. Gox and US Government Stockpiles
Oversupply risks persist, with Mt. Gox and the US government sitting with large BTC holdings. As of August 13, their BTC holdings were as follows:
- Mt. Gox: 46,164 BTC ($2.73 billion)
- US government: 203,239 BTC ($11.99 billion)
BTC and the broader crypto market continue to face oversupply risks. A flood of sell orders from Mt. Gox creditors or the US government could test buyer demand. Buyer demand could weaken if the US economy enters a recession.
This week, US inflation, jobless claims, and retail sales figures will likely influence BTC demand through US BTC-spot ETFs.
Geopolitical factors may also impact supply-demand trends.
US Presidential Election and BTC Price Trends
The US election remains a focal point for crypto investors, with Trump currently the crypto favorite. Election polls will likely influence US BTC-spot ETF flows and BTC demand.
However, rising tensions in the Middle East also need consideration. A regional conflict could impact buyer demand for riskier assets, including US BTC-spot ETFs and BTC.
BTC Price Trends
Softer US inflation figures but better-than-expected labor market data could support a BTC move toward $70,000.
Conversely, a spike in US jobless claims and inflation could rekindle US recession jitters, possibly signaling a BTC drop below $50,000.
A Middle East conflict could also push BTC toward $50,000, while the US Election Polls could impact BTC price trends more in September.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.
A BTC breakout from the 200-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $60,365 resistance level. A break above the $60,365 resistance level could signal a move toward the 50-day EMA.
US inflation data, geopolitics, and US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends need consideration on Monday.
On the other hand, a drop below $57,500 could bring the $55,000 handle into play.
With a 44.59 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may fall to the $55,000 handle before entering oversold territory.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH remained well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.
An ETH return to $2,800 could give the bull a run at the $3,033 resistance level. Furthermore, a break above the $3,033 resistance level could bring the 50-day and 200-day EMAs into play.
US ETH-spot ETF market flow trends also require consideration.
Conversely, an ETH drop below the $2,664 support level could signal a fall to the $2,403 support level.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 40.99, suggests an ETH fall to the $2,403 support level before entering oversold territory.
