Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bullish Technical Setup Points to $130K Target

US BTC-Spot ETF Inflows Send Bitcoin to Fresh Highs

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to a new all-time high of $124,428 on Sunday, October 5. Revived demand for BTC-spot ETFs fueled a breakout week, with BTC up 9.89% this week.

US BTC-Spot ETF Inflows Soar

The US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $3.24 billion in the reporting week ending Friday, October 3. Net inflows were the largest since November 2024, sending BTC to fresh highs. According to Farside Investors:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows of $1.82 billion.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $0.69 billion.

In total, nine of the eleven issuers reported net inflows for the week, underscoring robust institutional demand. The US BTC-spot ETF market had reported net outflows of $0.90 billion the previous week, pushing BTC to a low of $108,703.

US Government Shutdown and Fed Rate Cut Bets Lift Sentiment

The US government shutdown drove demand for BTC and spot ETFs. Economists expect the Fed to take a more cautious policy stance, given the absence of crucial US labor market and inflation data.

Notably, the shutdown came after the ADP reported a 32k fall in private sector employment in September. Economists had expected private sector employment to increase by 50k. Furthermore, the ISM Services PMI dropped from 52.0 in August to 50.0 in September. The drop to the neutral 50 level signaled a slowing economy, given that the services sector contributes around 80% to the US GDP.

A deteriorating labor market and loss of economic momentum lifted bets on multiple Fed rate cuts, boosting demand for risk assets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a 25-basis-point October Fed rate cut rose from 87.7% (September 26) to 96.2% (October 3). Additionally, the probability of a further 25-basis-point December rate cut increased from 65.4% to 86.3%.

Key Week Ahead: US Lawmakers, Labor Market Data, and the Fed in Focus

The coming week could be another crucial week for the US BTC spot ETFs and BTC. An end to the US government shutdown could trigger the release of key US labor market data, including the delayed US jobs report.

Softer wage growth, a drop in nonfarm payrolls, and rising unemployment may fuel speculation about aggressive Fed rate cuts. A more dovish Fed rate path would likely drive demand for spot ETFs and BTC. On the other hand, upbeat labor market data may temper bets on multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter, potentially weighing on sentiment.

Beyond Capitol Hill and the data, Fed Chair Powell and FOMC members’ speeches, along with the meeting minutes, will be in the spotlight. Growing backing for policy easing to bolster the labor market and economy could send BTC to new highs.

Bitcoin’s breakout week also boosted demand for Ethereum (ETH).

ETH Breaks Above $4,500 Spot-ETH Demand Rebounds

While BTC struck new highs, ETH reclaimed the crucial $4,500 level as institutional demand rebounded.

ETH rallied 10.3% this week, reversing the previous week’s 6.86% loss. US ETH-spot ETF issuers reported net inflows of $1.3 billion in the reporting week ending Friday, October 3, after the previous week’s outflows of $0.8 billion.

Explore our ETF flow deep-dive to see which tokens are winning the most capital.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several key events will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• Senate votes on stopgap funding bill.
• US economic data.
• FOMC members’ speeches.
• Legislative developments: the Market Structure Bill’s passage on Capitol Hill.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: An extended US government shutdown, weaker US data, dovish Fed signals, bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill, and ETF inflows. These factors could drive BTC toward $130,000.
• Bearish Scenario: US government reopens, rising US stagflation fears, hawkish Fed rhetoric, legislative roadblocks, or ETF outflows. These factors could push BTC toward $115,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A breakout above $125,000 could enable the bulls to target $130,000. A sustained move through $130,000 may pave the way toward $150,000.
• On the downside, a drop below $120,000 could expose the 50-day EMA. If breached, the 200-day EMA would be the next key technical support level.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum ETF Outlook and Demand

Turning to ETH, the token trades above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bullish bias.

• Upside Target: A break above $4,750 could bring the all-time high of $4,958 into play. A sustained move through $4,958 may enable the bulls to target $6,000.
• On the downside, a drop below $4,500 may expose the 50-day EMA. If breached, $4,085 would be the next key support level.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by monitoring macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.