Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast: Breakout above $60k in the Week Ahead?

Bitcoin (BTC) topped out at $52,858 for the just concluded trading week, however, derivatives market trends suggest traders are holding out for more bullish action. 

With Bitcoin open interest currently trending at historic peaks, can the bulls capitalize on the positive momentum to extend the rally to the $60,000 territory? 

Bitcoin Open Interest Has Trended above $22 billion for 3 Consecutive Days 

Bitcoin ETF firms have been at forefront of the crypto market rally in recent weeks. Blockchain analytics platform Cryptoquant recently stated that at least 75% of Bitcoin inflows came from the 10 newly-launched ETFs. This sparked concerns that BTC price could suffer a bearish reversal when ETFs closed trading for the week on Friday Feb 16. 

But interestingly, Bitcoin price has held firm, as the bulls fiercely defended the $51,000 support level over the weekend. Looking beyond the price charts, BTC speculative traders have also maintained their bullish disposition over the weekend. 

Coinglass’ open interest chart tracks the value of capital investors in Bitcoin futures contracts across various exchanges and trading platform.

The chart below shows the Bitcoin open interest climbed to a new 3-year peak of $22.5 billion on Feb 18, a $1.12 billion increase from the closing balance of Friday Feb 16. 

Interestingly, it has now trended above the 20 billion mark for 3 consecutive trading days, signaling steady bullish outlook among investors.

Essentially, this implies that while Bitcoin ETFs closed trading on Friday, speculative traders doubled-down on their positions, in anticipation that BTC price will continue on an upward trajectory in the coming days. 

It is also important to note that the BTC price traded above $60,300 the last time bitcoin open interest crossed the $22.55 billion mark back in April 2021. 

Strategic investors could interpret this as a signal that Bitcoin price is currently undervalued relative to the capital stock in the derivatives markets. 

If investors act on this bullish impetus, it could drive Bitcoin towards reclaiming the $60,000 territory in the week ahead. 

BTC Forecast: Can Bitcoin Price Reach $60,000 

At the time of writing of Feb 18, BTC is currently trading at $51,700. If the Bitcoin ETFs resume the buying trend as trading opens again on Monday Feb 19, BTC price could enter another leg-up towards $60,000. 

However, historical accumulation trend shows that BTC currently faces stiff resistance around the $53,200 area. 

IntoTheBlock’s  in/out of the money data shows that 532,050 addresses had acquired 294,890 BTC at the maximum price of $53,256.

Considering that they’ve been holding at a loss since December 2021, many of those investors could exit as BTC nears their break-even price. 

But If the bulls can surmount that $53,000 sell-wall, it could generate stronger bullish momentum for a retest of the $60,000 territory, as predicted. 

Alternatively, the bears could regain control of the markets if they force a sharp downswing below $48,000. But currently, this seems far-fetched considering the looming support buy-wall mounted at $50,000 territory.