Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast: ETF Inflows and Fed Cuts Signal Path to $150K; ETH Eyes $5,000

Bitcoin Breaks and Holds Above $115,000 as Spot ETF Inflows Soar

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding the spotlight after breaking above the $115,000 mark, a level traders have been eyeing for weeks.

On Saturday, September 13, BTC slipped 0.32%, reversing Friday’s 0.39% gain to close at $115,604. Despite Saturday’s loss, BTC closed above the crucial $115,000 level for the second consecutive session. The move comes as Wall Street pours billions into US Bitcoin-spot ETFs, signaling renewed investor confidence ahead of a critical week for the Federal Reserve.

A cooling US labor market fueled speculation about aggressive Fed rate cuts in the week, boosting demand for risk assets. The prospect of a weaker US dollar and lower borrowing costs fueled appetite for BTC and US Bitcoin-spot ETFs as a store of value.

The US BTC-spot ETF market reported total weekly net inflows of $2.3 billion in the week ending September 12. According to Farside Investors, key weekly inflows included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported weekly net inflows of $1.04 billion.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $849.6 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had combined net inflows of $320.2 million.

Crucially, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $2.57 billion in September, reversing August’s monthly outflows of $749.2 million.

Market intelligence platform Santiment highlighted investor focus on the Fed and US economic data, stating:

“Topics like interest rate cuts, tariffs, job reports, and other economic data have dominated 2025 crypto price swings.”

FOMO Could Send BTC to Fresh Highs

This week’s inflows could fuel FOMO sentiment as the Fed’s highly anticipated interest rate decision looms. Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, September 17. Unless there is a surprise move, the FOMC Economic Projections and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will be key for BTC.

Projections of two further Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter, and expectations of a resilient US economy, could boost demand for risk assets. By contrast, stagflation fears and a less dovish Fed rate path may weigh on sentiment.

Historically, BTC has benefited from Fed rate cuts. Crypto commentator Joe Consorti commented:

“Last year, following the Fed’s first 25-bps rate cut, BTC rose 14% throughout October. It rose 54.17% from October 1st through December 31st as further easing took place. Q4 is shaping up nicely for the orange coin.”

Consorti also suggested a potential surge to $150,000, stating:

“Bitcoin has historically risen 29.23% in October. That would imply a price of $150,000. Time will tell.”

ETH Faces Profit-Taking after Break Above $4,750

While Bitcoin held above $115,000 on weekly spot ETF inflows, Ethereum (ETH) succumbed to profit-taking. ETH fell 1.01% on Saturday, September 13, partially reversing Friday’s 5.73% rally to close at $4,668. ETH remained exposed to profit-taking as BTC and several alt-coins triggered an investor rotation in search of stronger gains.

The US ETH-spot ETF market reported total weekly net inflows of $623.6 million in the week ending September 12. Spot ETFs rebounded from outflows of $766.3 million from the previous week. Spot ETF flows sent ETH to $4,766, its highest level since August 25.

Explore our ETF flow deep-dive to see which tokens are winning the most capital.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several macro and market factors will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• Legislative news: the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill.
• US economic data: US retail sales and Jobless Claims.
• Federal Reserve interest rate decision, economic projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing US stagflation risks, a dovish Fed rate cut, bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill, and ETF inflows. These factors could send BTC back toward its record high of $123,731.
• Bearish Scenario: Increasing US stagflation risks, a hawkish Fed rate cut, legislative setbacks, or ETF outflows could drag BTC toward $100,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating bullish momentum

• Upside Target: A breakout above the September 12 high of $116,793 could enable the bulls to target the $120,000 level. A sustained move through $120,000 opens the door to testing the record high of $123,731.
• On the downside, $115,000 is the near-term support. $100,000 could potentially act as a key psychological floor.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum Outlook Hinged on ETF Flows

Turning to Ethereum, the token trades well above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, despite Saturday’s pullback, signaling a bullish bias.

• Upside Target: A breakout above $4,750 could bring the all-time high of $4,958 into play. A sustained move through the $4,958 may enable the bulls to target $6,000.
• On the downside, a break below $4,500 could expose the 50-day EMA. If breached, $4,085 would be the next key support level.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.