Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Price Eyes Breakout as CPI and Payrolls Loom

Bulls Hold the Upper Hand as Spot Gold Stays Within Range of Record High

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) finished last week with strong upward momentum after defending the weekly pivot at $4133.95 and pressing toward the record high at $4381.44. Price reached $4353.55 before stalling, but the weekly close at $4299.38 — a 2.40% gain — keeps the market well within striking distance of new highs.

With the delayed November jobs report and an unusual CPI release ahead, traders are preparing for data that could drive sharp moves in yields, the dollar, and interest-rate expectations.

Rising Yields Complicate the Gold Setup

The most notable development last week was the move in U.S. Treasurys. The 10-year yield rallied to 4.186%, its highest level since September 2025, closing up 0.047 on the week.

That rise would typically act as a headwind for bullion, and it likely contributed to gold pausing just below last week’s peak. Traders noted that the Fed’s divided vote on its third consecutive rate cut raised questions about the pace of easing in 2026, and the market responded by pushing yields higher rather than lower.

With the 10-year sitting just off multi-month highs, any further firming this week could temporarily slow gold’s upside attempts.

Dollar Weakness Remains a Supportive Offset

Despite the rise in yields, the U.S. dollar moved in the opposite direction, slipping to multi-month lows and offering consistent support for gold. The disconnect between stronger yields and a weaker dollar gave traders a unique setup: gold faced pressure from the bond market but continued to attract demand from overseas buyers taking advantage of favorable currency conditions.

As long as the dollar stays soft, gold retains a tailwind even in the face of elevated Treasury yields.

Jobs and CPI Data Take Center Stage

This week’s data will shape how traders interpret the Fed’s next steps. Payrolls are expected to show flat hiring in October and a modest 50,000 increase in November, with unemployment edging up to 4.5%.

CPI is trickier due to the missing October release, forcing markets to rely on a two-month read. Estimates point to a 0.5% cumulative rise in headline CPI and a 3.1% annual rate. Any upside surprise would reinforce the recent rise in yields.

Gold Price Forecast – Weekly Bias Remains Bullish

The weekly structure remains bullish as long as gold holds above $4133.95. The strong close at $4299.38 keeps pressure to the upside, and a break above $4353.55 would quickly shift attention back to the $4381.44 record.

Rising yields are the main obstacle, but unless CPI or payrolls fuel a sustained bond selloff, gold still looks positioned for another attempt at new highs.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.