Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Visits sub-$29,000 Despite a NASDAQ 100 Rally

Key Insights:

• On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) added to last week’s 3.30% loss with a 3.93% slide to end the day at $29,076.
• The bearish session came despite the NASDAQ 100 rallying by 1.59%, with market angst over a likely shift in the regulatory landscape weighing.
• Bitcoin (BTC) technical indicators flash red, with bitcoin sitting below the 50-day EMA.

Bitcoin (BTC) slid by 3.93% on Monday. Reversing a 2.90% gain from Sunday, bitcoin ended the day at $29,076. While bitcoin gave up early gains, the NASDAQ recovered from the red to close out the day in positive territory.

Dip buyers failed to deliver support, with bitcoin giving up gains from early in the day to visit sub-$29,000 before a partial recovery.

The Monday session saw bitcoin decouple from the NASDAQ 100 through the afternoon. Bitcoin had tracked the NASDAQ through the morning before hitting reverse.

While the NASDAQ found support on news of the US administration reviewing China tariffs and China easing lockdown measures, regulatory risk continued to weigh.

The collapse of TerraUSD (UST) and Terra LUNA has forced governments and regulators to expedite regulatory reform, driving market uncertainty.

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Avoids a Return to sub-10/100

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 10/100 to 12/100. The increase came despite bitcoin revisiting sub-$29,000 levels before closing out Monday at $29,076.

Avoiding a return to last week’s low of 8/100 suggests a possible bottoming out from an investor fear perspective.

For the bitcoin bulls, however, decoupling from the NASDAQ 100 will raise questions over what lies ahead. Increased regulatory scrutiny, negative central bank chatter, and economic uncertainty leave bitcoin at risk of further losses.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.39% to $29,188.

Technical Indicators

BTC will need to move through the $29,524 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level at $30,188.

BTC would need the broader crypto market to support a return to $30,000.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level at $31,300 and resistance at $31,500. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $33,072.

Failure to move through the pivot would test the First Major Support Level at $28,415. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should steer clear of sub-$27,500 levels. The Second Major Support Level at $27,751 should limit the downside.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it is a bearish signal. This morning, BTC sits below the 50-day EMA at $29,921. The 50-day pulled back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, BTC negative.

A move through the 50-day EMA to $30,000 would support a run at $31,500.