Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Holds at 30 in Response to Range-Bound BTC

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) rose for the second time in ten sessions, with a 0.98% gain leaving BTC down 0.55% for the week.
• A quiet day on the crypto news wires left BTC range bound as investors continued to digest recent US economic indicators and the likely impact on Fed policy.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 30/100, unmoved by bitcoin’s continued failure to revisit $24,000.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.98%. Partially reversing a 1.56% loss from Saturday, bitcoin ended the week down 0.55% to $23,180. The bullish session marked just the second rise from ten sessions. BTC failed to revisit the $24,000 handle for a seventh session.

A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $22,854. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,852, BTC rallied to a late high of $23,400.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,206 before easing back to sub-$23,200.

Another quiet day on the crypto news wires left investors to consider recent US economic indicators and Fed monetary policy.

ISM-based service PMI and nonfarm payroll figures may have alleviated immediate concern over a US economic recession. However, the numbers have fueled speculation of a percentage point rate hike.

Investors may have taken comfort in knowing that the Fed will have another round of economic indicators to consider ahead of the September policy decision.

For the week ahead, US inflation figures for July could give investors a more concrete view of what to expect. Another spike in consumer prices could test investor resilience. Therefore, we expect the correlation between the NASDAQ and BTC to remain in effect near term.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Holds at 30/100 on Range Bound BTC Session

Today, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 30/100. Bitcoin’s second rise in ten sessions failed to move the Index, with BTC currently experiencing a string of daily losses.

Avoiding sub-30 suggests a possible bitcoin bottom, with bitcoin seeing a modest weekly loss despite five sessions in the red. Nonetheless, the Index remains deep within the Fear zone and well below the most recent high of 42/100.

For the bitcoin bulls, the Index needs to move back towards 40/100 and the neutral zone to deliver BTC support.

On July 30, the Index had stood at 42/100 to briefly border the neutral zone that starts at 46/100.

This week, avoiding a return to sub-30/100 could prove BTC positive and support a breakout from the July high of $24,619.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.22% to $23,230.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $23,146 pivot to target the Sunday high of $23,400 and the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,436.

BTC would need a bullish start to the session to support a return to $23,400.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,692 and resistance at $24,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $24,237.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,888 into play.

In case of an extended sell-off, BTC would likely test the Second Major Support Level at $22,600 and support at $22,500 before any recovery.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $22,053.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,079.

The 50-day EMA widened on the 100-day EMA with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, the signals BTC price positive.

A 50-day EMA widening from the 100-day EMA would support a run at R1 to bring R2 and $24,000 into play.

However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring S1 ($22,888) and the 100-day EMA, currently at $22,854, into play.

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the July high of $24,619 and $25,000 to target the June high of $31,956. A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a run at the June high.

From $31,200, BTC should have a clear run at the May high of $40,004. BTC needs to hold above the 50-day EMA to support the near-term bullish trend.

For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 would be the next target, with a fall through the July low of $18,768 likely to test investor resilience.