Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Weekly ‘Death Cross’ Raises Odds of Crypto Winter

After a positive start in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) has booked a 10% loss in the past 7 days as President Donald Trump’s comments once again derailed cryptos’ attempt to recover.

Over $750 million worth of crypto long positions have been wiped out today as BTC drops below $88,000.

In the past 4 days alone, nearly $2.1 billion worth of long positions have evaporated as BTC finally broke out of its consolidation and lost the psychological $90,000 support.

Bitcoin Liqudations – Source: CoinGlass

Trump’s rhetoric and threats over Greenland catalyzed the latest downturn. However, a sell signal in the weekly chart from November last year is unfolding as expected, while a major technical signal in this higher time frame could mark the beginning of a “crypto winter”.

Weekly Death Cross Favors 60% Drop for Bitcoin

Looking at BTC’s weekly price action, the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) is about to cross below the 50-week EMA. This technical phenomenon is known as a death cross and could mark the beginning of a strong downtrend for the top crypto.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart (Bitstamp) – Source: TradingView

The last death cross between these two lines took place in April 2022. Back then, the price dropped from around $40,000 to $16,00, resulting in a 60% loss in just 7 months.

If history repeats, this would mean that the price could collapse to $36,000, as we initially predicted back in a BTC price prediction piece from November 28.

BTC’s November “Sell” Signal Provided an Early Warning

We have been sharing this mid-term target for BTC multiple times already, and the price action has been confirming this outlook as the token has failed to recapture the $100,000 level.

This death cross is showing up 10 weeks after a sell signal appeared in this higher time frame (HFT). This signals system identifies decisional candles by analyzing a combination of trend direction, trading volumes, and candle patterns.

HFT signals are much more reliable and less frequent compared to hourly ones. They tend to be good predictors of the direction of an asset’s price trend, and, in this case, this sell candle may have marked the start of BTC’s current bearish cycle.

BTC Weekly RSI – Source: TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to be in a downtrend in this high time frame (HFT) but has not yet touched oversold levels, meaning that we still see BTC dropping to lower levels without necessarily triggering a technical rebound.

Bitcoin Broke Its Daily Trend Line Support

Bitcoin’s daily chart further confirms the continuation of the current downtrend as the top crypto has broken out of a bear flag pattern.

BTC/USD Daily Chart (Bitstamp) – Source: TradingView

This is a continuation pattern that tends to show up after pronounced uptrends and downtrends. This breakout confirms the flag’s bias and could indicate that the market is ready to move to lower levels.

The most likely target for BTC in the near term would be $84,000, meaning a 3.4% downside risk. Meanwhile, if that area of support falters, we could see the top crypto diving to the low 70,000s shortly.

A “sell” signal also flashed in this time frame yesterday as BTC broke out of the flag. This makes this flag a high-probability pattern and provides an attractive entry for a short-term trade.