Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by 28% in the past 30 days and currently trades near $67,000 after hitting a sell wall at $70K.
This psychological level turned into resistance during the weekend, and could push BTC to $60,000 for a 14% loss in the near term if bearish momentum persists.
The market is preparing to digest today’s release of the FOMC’s minutes, along with inflation and economic growth data later on Friday.
Inflation has been dropping lately and moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target, paving the way for a sooner-than-expected interest rate cut.
FedWatch Rate Cut Probabilities (April Meeting) – Source: CME Group
However, data from FedWatch shows that the market does not expect a rate cut during the March meeting, while less than a quarter of the analysts surveyed believe that the central bank will slash rates during its April meeting.
Meanwhile, 50% sees the next rate cut taking place in June, a month after Chairman Jerome Powell is replaced by President Trump’s pick, Kevin Warsh.
Bitcoin plummeted, alongside most other asset classes, right after Warsh was announced as Trump’s candidate for the Fed. Hence, its performance might start to improve once the dust settles on this matter.
Social volumes show that BTC’s latest retreat has ignited a wave of bearish mentions across social media and news headlines.
Bitcoin (BTC) Social Volumes – Source: Santiment
On-chain data from Santiment indicates that mentions spiked earlier this month to their highest levels since July 2025, back when Bitcoin rose to a new all-time high.
Meanwhile, the metric’s 7-day moving average (MA) rose above the 50-day MA, signaling a shift in its short-term trend.
Big spikes in social volumes tend to be good predictors of local tops and bottoms. When BTC is doing well, social mentions increase, and FOMO tends to kick in, positioning the token for a pullback.
Similarly, when BTC is dropping sharply, social mentions rise as well as analysts and investors increasingly discuss how low the price might go and whether “Bitcoin is dead”. Is BTC getting ready to reverse its downtrend?
We have been discussing for a while that contrarian sentiment indicators have been piling up lately. This means that we could be nearing BTC’s local bottom.
BTC/USD Daily Chart – Source: TradingView
The most likely support area that could put an end to this bear market is the $60,000 level. The price spiked right after hitting that threshold and has not yet retested it.
This price area is also the most likely landing zone for the top crypto if bearish momentum accelerates in the next few days. BTC’s strong retreat off the $70K area shows that selling pressure remains strong.
The strong liquidity that is likely sitting at $60,000 could prompt a massive short squeeze at a point when the market is heavily one-sided. Rising past $75,000 could trigger a big move and push BTC back to $100K in a short period.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) just stepped off oversold levels and rose above the 14-day moving average, which could also be interpreted as an early buy signal.
Paired with a spike in bearish social sentiment and a heavily depressed Fear and Greed Index, the odds favor a bullish outlook for the next couple of months.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.