Solana Price Prediction: Bulls Need to Recapture $118 to Bring SOL Back to Life

Solana (SOL) has taken a big hit in the past 30 days after shedding 40% of its value and dropping below the key psychological support of $100 per token.

This caused a dramatic spike in network usage, possibly as cascade liquidations across DeFi protocols soared while bullish sentiment fully evaporated.

Transaction Volumes Spike as SOL Dips Below Key Support

On-chain data from Santiment shows that transaction volumes rose to a 12-month peak of 230.5 million transactions during the first week of February as SOL dropped below $118.

Solana Transaction Volumes – Source: Artemis

This confirms the technical relevance of this specific price level and makes it the most important price area that bulls must recapture to ignite the beginning of a potential recovery for SOL.

We saw a similar spike in transaction volumes back when SOL moved below $200.

Trading volumes have been steadily rising since the end of December, as the price progressively lost multiple key supports.

If expressed as a percentage of Solana’s market cap, weekly volumes have been rising from 4% in the beginning of the year to a peak of 14% two weeks ago.

This weekly percentage was the second-highest for SOL in three years, confirming the strength of the latest selling spree.

Solana Rejects Move Above Key Resistance at $90

Heading to the 4-hour chart, we can see that this peak coincides with SOL’s drop below $118 and then $100.

SOL/USD 4H Chart – Source: TradingView

Now, we can see that a phase of consolidation seems to have started, as SOL has been trading relatively range-bound between $77 and $90 in the past 12 days or so.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the signal line, sitting at 48 at the time of writing. This means that negative momentum has gained traction, but not yet to the extent of confirming the resumption of the previous downtrend.

If the $90 resistance is broken, the most likely target for SOL would be $100 first and then $118. At this point, considering how critical this price area has been for market participants in the past, another rejection of a move above it could catalyze a retest of the $75 mark.

Two Consecutive Sell Signals Pop Up in the 1H Chart

Meanwhile, the hourly chart shows that two consecutive sell signals have popped up after SOL hit $90. This increases the odds of a retest of the $78 horizontal support in the near term before we get a relief rally.

SOL/USD 1H Chart – Source: TradingView

There was a slight bullish divergence in the RSI, but low-time frame signals like that tend to be less reliable compared to HFT signals.

A rejection of $90 plus two confirmed sell signals created a high-probability setup that could yield a 2x~ return if SOL retests the $78 level.