Solana Price Outlook: SOL May Plunge 25% Despite ETF Inflows

Solana (SOL) faces renewed downside risk as bearish technicals persist and broader risk sentiment weakens, even as spot ETF flows remain modestly positive.

Bear Flag Signals Potential Move Toward $65

Solana is forming a bear flag on the four-hour chart, a continuation structure that often appears after sharp declines and tends to resolve in the direction of the prevailing trend.

SOL fell from the $140 area to below $80 in early February, creating the pattern’s “flagpole.” Price action has since shifted into a mildly rising consolidation channel, characterized by higher lows pressing into overhead resistance.

In isolation, that rebound may appear constructive, but within a bear-flag framework, it frequently represents consolidation before continuation.

SOL price now trades around $86–$87 and remains below its 50-, 100-, and 200-period exponential moving averages, all of which are sloping lower and functioning as dynamic resistance.

A decisive breakdown below the lower boundary of the flag, near $80, would strengthen the bearish continuation case and open the path toward the $64–$66 zone, approximately 25% below current levels, based on a measured move derived from the prior decline.

The bearish setup would be invalidated if the price sustains a breakout above $92.

ETF Inflows Improve, But Macro Risk Limits Follow-Through

Despite the technical fragility, Solana spot ETFs recorded net inflows this week.

SoSoValue data shows weekly net additions of roughly $13 million, while total net assets remain above $700 million. The figures indicate that longer-horizon investors are still allocating, particularly after the recent drawdown.

However, positive flows have not translated into sustained upside. One reason is that Solana, like most high-beta crypto assets, remains sensitive to shifts in broader risk appetite.

A key headwind has been the recent deterioration in sentiment around artificial intelligence, which has developed into what some market participants describe as an “AI scare trade.”

Solana typically reacts to these conditions because it trades as a liquidity-sensitive, growth-linked asset.

As a result, ETF inflows may be providing some support at the margin, but they have not yet been sufficient to offset a bearish chart structure and a less constructive risk backdrop.