Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Inventory Surge Caps Oil, NG Coils – Is $60 Oil Next?

Market Overview

Oil markets are caught in a delicate dance between geopolitical uncertainty and a steady trickle of new supply, keeping price benchmarks stuck in a tight range. WTI prices are lingering around $63.30 to $63.70 a barrel, while Brent is clinging to $68.20 to $68.60, and that $4 to $5 premium it’s carrying – largely due to transit risks – is staying put.

All eyes are on the diplomatic wrangling and military posturing in key shipping lanes, which carry close to 20% of the world’s crude, adding a bit of extra uncertainty but not a whole lot of drama.

Meanwhile, the fundamentals just aren’t looking great. Global supply is expected to jump by about 2.4 million barrels a day in 2026 to just shy of 108.7 million barrels a day, outpacing the meagre demand growth of less than a million barrels a day.

And then there’s the US inventories – they’ve just ticked up to 428.8 million barrels and that’s only added to concerns that we’re in for a supply surplus which is capping any price gains.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: $3.33 Resistance Caps NG – Range Before Break?

Natural Gas is stuck at $3.09 on the 4-hour chart, just below the key $3.33 resistance level. We’ve also got the 0.236 Fibonacci level sitting right there, which should give us a clue about the strength of the trend. The recent candles have been showing some pretty small bodies and overlapping ranges, which is telling us that the market is getting a bit indecisive after its recent rally up to $4.38.

The price is holding above the demand zone around $3.00 and the 50-day EMA is flattening, while the 200 day EMA is starting to slope upwards again. The overall structure is still looking pretty good, but the momentum has definitely cooled off a bit. If we see a break above $3.33 then the path is open towards $3.91 and potentially even $4.00.

On the downside, if we lose $3.00 then we could potentially see a drop towards $2.67 (0.382 Fib), followed by $2.14.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $3.35, aiming for $3.90 with a stop below $2.98.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: $62.35 Trendline Test – Will $65.12 Cap the Upside?

WTI crude is currently stuck at $63.23 on the 4-hour chart after the previous swing high at $65.12. it has managed to hold above the trendline from early January and the 200 day EMA at $62.00 – which is a good sign for the overall picture.

The recent candles have some small bodies and long upper wicks at $63.80, which is telling us that price is hesitating just below resistance. If we see a dip below $62.35 then the trendline will be exposed and we could potentially see a drop towards $61.23. On the upside, clearing $63.80 could see a retest at $65.12 and possibly even $66.45.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $63.85, aiming for $65.10 with a stop just below $62.30.

Brent Crude Oil Forecast: $67.07 Trendline Support – Can $69.44 Reignite Upside?

Brent crude is currently hovering at $68.05 on the 4-hour chart after failing to make any headway towards $69.44. We’ve got a bunch of small bodies and long upper shadows in the $69.00-$70.00 range, which is telling us that markets are getting a bit cautious ahead of the $70.55 resistance zone. The price is just above the rising trendline and the horizontal support at $67.07.

The medium-term picture is still looking pretty good – the 50 day EMA at $68.50 is flattening out and the 200 day EMA around $66.00 is still sloping upwards. If we see a break below $67.07 then we could potentially see a drop towards $65.50 and $64.20. On the upside, if we can reclaim $69.44 then the path is open towards $70.55 and $71.54.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $69.50, aiming for $70.50 with a stop below $67.00.