US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Tightens Before FOMC Minutes – GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook Set to Slide?

Market Overview

As of mid-February 2026, the US Dollar Index is trying to find its footing after giving up almost 9% year on year since those highs above 107 back in 2025. The shift is a sign of a tug of war going on between the solid US macro data and the growing expectation that the central bank will eventually have to ease up on policy.

Right now, the markets think the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates by 60-70 basis points by the end of the year – with futures betting that the first move will come around mid-2026. Now all this comes after some softer inflation readings earlier in the year – but the core measures are still sitting pretty much above the Fed’s target of 2%.

Despite that – the US GDP is still holding its own against other developed countries, and unemployment is down at multi year lows showing the relative economic strength.

Investors Await Key Economic Data

Moreover, market participants are expected to remain cautious ahead of key events this week. However, the focus is on the upcoming FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

On top of this, the US Q4 GDP report, the PCE Price Index, and global flash PMIs coming later in the week could also affect the dollar’s direction.

US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Coils Near $97.22 as Triangle Tightens

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is stuck at $97.22 on the 4-hour chart, jammed inside a tightening triangle that’s formed between a downward slanting trend line and a rising support line. The price is clinging to the $97.21 (0.5 Fib) area after bouncing back up from $96.34 (0.236 Fib) – a bit of a stabilizing sign in the short term.

Bodies on the candles are starting to look pretty small as the price tries to make up its mind around the triangle’s apex. The 50-EMA is slowly leveling off around $97.60, while the 200-EMA near $97.98 is pretty much capping any upside attempts. Resistance for now is at $97.60 and $97.98. On the flip side, support is seen at $96.83 and $96.34.

If the price breaks above $97.98 we might see a push all the way up to $99.79 meanwhile, a collapse below $96.83 has the potential to tank to $96.34.

Trade idea: Make a buy at $97.98 and aim to get to $99.70. Try not to get long below $96.80.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: $1.3560 Support Gives Way

GBP/USD has just dropped to $1.3550 on the 4-hour chart, breaking below $1.3579 horizontal support and pushing against the upward trend line from early February. After the latest candle we’ve just seen, we have bearish momentum pretty firmly in the driver’s seat – price is closing near session lows, and is sitting well below both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA.

In addition, we now have our price stuck under a downward trend line from the $1.3870 high – we also have what looks like a lower high in the making. So on the resistance front, we’ve got $1.3600 and $1.3690.

On the flip side, $1.3510 and $1.3460 are now our immediate support levels. If the price manages to break below $1.3510, we might be looking at a deeper collapse all the way to $1.3460.

Trade idea: Try selling below $1.3510, target $1.3460, stop above $1.3600.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: $1.1830 Break Risks Slide Toward $1.1670

EUR/USD is at $1.1830 on the 4-hour chart, now sliding below a previous support zone that we had been keeping an eye on – and as we speak, it’s giving the ascending trend line from late January a hard time. The last few candles are looking pretty bearish with lower highs and stronger down body areas – which isn’t a good sign for the upside momentum.

The price is right under the 50-EMA whereas the 200-EMA near $1.1765 might just hold things up a bit longer. In terms of immediate levels, $1.1870 and $1.1927 are set to be the top of resistance, whereas $1.1765 and $1.1672 stand as our immediate support levels. A decisive close below $1.1765 puts us firmly in the red – we’d then be looking at a possible collapse to $1.1670.

Trade idea: Try selling below $1.1765, target $1.1670, stop above $1.1870