XRP News Today: XRPL RWA-Tokenization Boom Lifts Sentiment

XRP kick-starts the week on a strong footing, eyeing a return to $1.5 as increased utility boosts sentiment.

Reports of increased utility in the banking sector and a surge in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) fueled demand for XRP.

Meanwhile, strong demand for US-XRP-spot ETFs and increased optimism that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill contributed to XRP’s gains on Monday, February 16. These key dynamics support a bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook for XRP, with a price target of $2.5.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

XRP Remains Core to Ripple’s Main Street Expansion

XRP utility is a key price driver, given XRPL’s core product suite offering and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s frequent reminder that XRP remains central to Ripple’s expansion on Main Street.

This month, Ripple released a paper discussing institutional DeFi on XRPL, focusing on scaling real-world finance with XRP at the core. Key highlights included:

• XRP’s utility is growing across payments, liquidity, and credit markets.
• New institutional-grade features are scaling use cases for tokenized assets, FX, and on-chain credit.
• The foundation for the next generation of blockchain-based financial infrastructure is being built, with XRP as the backbone.

Brad Garlinghouse previously remarked on XRP’s central role in Ripple’s expansion on Main Street, stating:

“With today’s close of Hidden Road (now Ripple Prime), Ripple has announced 5 major acquisitions in ~2 years (GTreasury last week, Rail in August, Standard Custody in 2024, Metaco in 2023). As we continue to build solutions towards enabling an Internet of Value – I’m reminding you all that XRP sits at the center of everything Ripple does. Lock in.”

Notably, XRP rallied from a February 6 low of $1.1227 to a February 15 high of $1.6703 following the release of the paper on February 5. Other driving forces behind XRP’s rally include reports of surging tokenization of real-world assets on XRPL, XRP-spot ETF inflows, and crypto-related legislative developments on Capitol Hill.

XRP Ledger Ranks Second for Tokenized Commodities

A key highlight from Ripple’s paper on institutional DeFi on XRPL was the tokenization of real-world assets. According to rwa.xyz, tokenized physical commodities, commodity-linked securities, and funds providing exposure to raw materials and natural resources have soared year-to-date.

The total market cap jumped 30.89% to $7.06 billion in 30 days. Significantly, XRPL ranks second behind Ethereum with a market cap of $1.14 billion, reportedly up 920% over 30 days.

Meanwhile, the US XRP-spot ETF market has reported total net inflows of $1.23 billion since launch, versus $0.875 billion of inflows into US SOL-spot ETFs. By comparison, the US BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETF markets have seen net outflows of $5 billion and $2.49 billion since November 2025.

Robust demand for US XRP-spot ETFs underscores investor sentiment toward XRP utility and the potential positive impact of crypto-friendly legislation on real-world asset tokenization and on Ripple’s expansion on Main Street.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

Despite recovering from this month’s low of $1.1227, XRP remains down 10% in February, supporting a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

However, resilient demand for XRP-spot ETFs, hopes that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility reaffirm the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook

Several events could derail the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

• Stronger-than-expected US data dampens bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows.

There is also the Bank of Japan and yen carry trades to consider. A hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%). Multiple BoJ rate hikes could narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials may trigger a yen carry trade unwind, leading to a liquidity crunch, as seen in mid-2024.

A yen carry trade unwind would affirm XRP’s short-term bearish structure. For context, the BoJ previously declared a wider neutral rate range of 1%-2.5% but stated it would announce a narrower range at a later date.

These scenarios would weigh on XRP, send the token toward $1.0, and reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP gained 0.87% on February 16, partially reversing the previous day’s 2.25% loss, closing at $1.4879. The token outperformed the broader crypto market cap, which climbed by 0.4%.

Despite the recovery, XRP remained well below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions indicated a bearish bias. However, the 50-day EMA is flattening, indicating a potential shift in technicals. Furthermore, several favorable fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook.

Nevertheless, short-term technicals remain bearish despite the evolving positive fundamentals.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.0, and then $0.7773.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $1.7233.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.1371.
• Resistance levels: $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.

On the daily chart, a break above $1.50 would enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA.

A sustained breakout above the EMAs would affirm a bullish trend reversal and support the medium- to longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF demand.
• US economic indicators and the Fed’s policy outlook. This week, the FOMC meeting minutes, FOMC member speeches, US GDP, and US inflation numbers are likely to be key price catalysts.
• Crypto-related regulatory developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and rate path
• Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bearish Structure Intact: $1.0 Remains Critical Support

XRP’s February losses affirmed the existing bearish trend, at risk of a five-month losing streak. A break below the lower trendline would bring the February 6 low of $1.1227 into play. If breached, $1.0 would be the next key support level. A sustained fall below $1.0 would reaffirm the bearish short-term outlook and further validate the bearish structure.

However, reclaiming $1.5 would open the door to testing $2.0 and the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and indicate a bullish trend reversal, reaffirming the constructive medium-term bias.

• Short-term (1-4 weeks): $1.0.
• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): target of $3.0.

XRP Outlook: Crypto Legislation, ETF Flows, and the Fed in Focus

Looking ahead, legislative developments on Capitol Hill remain key to XRP’s price outlook. Further progress toward an agreement on stablecoin yields would raise hopes that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, boosting XRP demand.

Meanwhile, central bank chatter and XRP-spot ETF flow trends will also influence XRP’s price trajectory.

A more dovish Fed and a lower BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would lift buying interest in risk assets. Robust demand for US XRP-spot ETFs and crypto-friendly regulatory developments would reaffirm the positive medium-term outlook.

In summary, these events would support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.5. The US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8-12 weeks) price target of $3.0.

Beyond 12 weeks, these scenarios are likely to send XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A breakout above $3.66 would affirm a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.