Traders brace for a pivotal end to October as crucial events could trigger the next XRP price breakout or breakdown. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s (OCC) 120-day review period of Ripple’s filing for a US-chartered banking license is coming to an end. Furthermore, US Senators made progress overnight toward reopening the government, raising hopes for the imminent approval of XRP-spot ETFs.
The anticipation of Ripple receiving a US-chartered banking license and the SEC greenlighting XRP-spot ETFs had fueled speculation of an October XRP breakout.
Ripple US-Chartered Banking License Decision Looms
Ripple’s expansion onto Main Street could get a significant boost. Ripple filed for a national bank charter, which could further legitimize XRP and drive utilization, given that:
- Integration into traditional banking services such as cross-border payments, remittances, and settlements would drive institutional demand for XRP as a bridge currency.
- Links to traditional banking infrastructure, payment networks, and correspondent banking relationships would further strengthen Ripple’s access to global payment rails and liquidity.
Crucially, the US government shutdown will not affect the OCC’s review timelines. The OCC is funded by member institutions, not through annual appropriations, and therefore continues to operate during the shutdown. Ripple filed for a US-chartered banking license on July 2, meaning the review period ends on November 1. The period for public comment closed on August 4.
Some analysts previously downplayed the significance of Ripple receiving a banking license on XRP price trends. However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently commented on XRP being central to its expansion onto Main Street, stating:
“With today’s close of Hidden Road (now Ripple Prime), Ripple has announced 5 major acquisitions in ~2 years (GTreasury last week, Rail in August, Standard Custody in 2024, Metaco in 2023). As we continue to build solutions towards enabling an Internet of Value – I’m reminding you all that XRP sits at the center of everything Ripple does. Lock in.”
While the formal 120-day review period ends on November 1, some analysts believe the OCC may take up to 12–18 months to complete its assessment.
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See all Ripple forecastsCan President Trump Influence the OCC Decision?
Notably, the OCC heads an independent office within the US Treasury and can only be removed by President Trump submitting notice and giving the Senate reasons for removal. However, President Trump appointed Jonathan Gould as Comptroller of the Currency in July 2025, suggesting a more favorable stance on crypto firms.
US Senate Moves Closer to Ending the Stalemate
While the OCC’s review of Ripple’s banking license request continues, the US government shutdown further delayed the approval of XRP-spot ETFs. The US Senate stalemate extended to 29 days on Wednesday, October 29, leaving the SEC with a skeleton staff.
To date, the Senate has voted 13 times but failed to pass a stopgap funding bill. However, there were reports of progress toward ending the shutdown. Crucially, the SEC could approve the pending XRP-spot ETFs once the US government reopens, potentially unlocking a surge in institutional demand.
The potential launch of XRP-spot ETFs and the OCC granting Ripple a US-chartered banking license set XRP up for a strong end to the year. Spot ETF inflows will be crucial, given the influence of the BTC-spot ETF market on Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trajectory.
Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels
XRP fell 2.06% on Wednesday, October 29, following the previous day’s 1.07% loss, closing at $2.5522. The token tracked the broader crypto market, which declined 1.81%. Fed Chair Powell downplayed the chances of a December rate cut, weighing on sentiment.
Following a third consecutive daily loss, XRP traded below the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias. However, several key events could change the narrative.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support levels: $2.5, $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
- 50-day EMA resistance: $2.6779.
- 200-day EMA resistance: $2.6109.
- Resistance levels: $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.
Catalysts to Watch in the Coming Sessions
In the upcoming sessions, several key events could influence near-term price trends:
- US-China trade talks.
- A US Senate vote.
- XRP-spot ETFs (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
- Blue-chip companies’ interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.
Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.5
- US-China trade talks stall.
- BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
- The US Senate impasse extends to day 30, further delaying XRP-spot ETF launches.
- The US Senate challenges crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
- Blue-chip companies downplay interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
- SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple’s market access.
These bearish events could push XRP toward the $2.5 level, exposing the $2.35 support level. If breached, $2.2 would be the next key support level. A sustained break below $2.2 would bring the $2.0 psychological support level into play.
Despite the recovery from sub-$2.2 levels, the descending channel shows multiple confirmed touches of the upper resistance band in early October. Furthermore, each rally has broken down at a lower price level. See chart below for reference.
Bullish Scenario: Path to $3 Gains Traction
- The US and China sign a trade deal.
- The US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill.
- BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC greenlights XRP-spot ETFs.
- Blue-chip companies eye XRP holdings for treasury reserve purposes, and Main Street adopts Ripple technology.
- Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill advances on Capitol Hill.
These bullish scenarios could drive XRP above $2.62, bringing $2.80 into play. A break above $2.80 may enable the bulls to target the $3.0 psychological level. A sustained move above $3.00 could extend gains toward the all-time high of $3.66.
Notably, XRP has traded within a tighter range, with the triangle tightening and volatility contracting ahead of key events. See chart below for reference. The current pattern suggests an imminent move, with US-China trade talks, the OCC, the Senate, and the SEC in the spotlight.
Outlook: Tailwinds Signal Bullish Momentum
XRP’s near-term trajectory will hinge on the outcome of US President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi and developments in the US Senate.
The token is currently in negative territory for October. However, a US-China trade deal and the launch of XRP-spot ETFs could trigger a rebound, sending the token to new highs.
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