Bitcoin Price News: Whale Buying Favors Upcoming Breakout of $80K Ceiling

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen its price rise by 14% in the past 30 days, as market conditions have improved and geopolitical tensions have eased.

The top crypto recently neared the $80,000 level for the first time since February. Although the selling pressure quickly ramped up, this move was an early signal that buying interest is increasing.

Bitcoin ETFs Break 9-Day Streak of Positive Net Inflows

The token’s 3% retreat in the past 24 hours broke a 9-day streak of positive net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

During this period, these vehicles brought in more than $2.1 billion. However, investors took out $263 million from ETFs yesterday, indicating that buyers might be ready to take a breather.

The market expects that the war with Iran should soon come to an end, as President Trump has repeatedly said. However, the price of oil climbed above $100 today once again, as peace talks hit an impasse this week.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed as the U.S. opted to block passage to force Iran’s hand. However, the country has not yet succumbed to these measures.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting will take place on Wednesday. Analysts expect no changes to the federal funds rate during this meeting – the last one that Jerome Powell will preside as Kevin Warsh should take the central bank’s leading role next month.

Sentiment has soured once again, as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped from a local peak of 62 (Greed) to 41 (Neutral) at the time of writing, indicating that investors remain cautious.

The war with Iran prompted analysts to revisit their projections for the year, and nobody seems to believe that the Fed will cut rates this year anymore. However, Warsh’s appointment brings a ‘wild card’ to the table as he is expected to take a more dovish approach than his predecessor.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that the “smart money” seems to be positioning for the continuation of Bitcoin’s monthly rally.

Whales Buy Over $3.5 Billion Worth of BTC in April

According to data from Santiment, whale wallets, those holding between 1 and 10,000 BTC tokens, have bought 50,000 BTC in April, meaning an investment of around $3.75 billion.

Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 tokens have done most of the buying. This could be an early indication that deep-pocketed players are convinced that we have already hit a cycle bottom.

Paired with higher ETF inflows, it seems that investors’ risk appetite is rising, although at a relatively slow pace. The price would have to break past higher thresholds to create some FOMO and catalyze an even stronger rally.

To sum up, we have identified three bullish signals at this point that favor a positive outlook for BTC:

1. A shift in market sentiment, as the Fear and Greed Index stepped out of a record low of 5 recently and was propelled to Greed territory.
2. Strong ETF inflows, exceeding $2 billion.
3. Whale accumulation.

Weekly Buy Signal Anticipates Strong Returns for BTC

Heading to the weekly chart, we have been tracking a long-dated signal in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that has marked the end of previous bearish cycles as well.

As the chart shows, whenever the RSI hits 30, Bitcoin tends to take a U-turn and start performing positively over the next few years.

The first two times that this signal popped up, the top crypto delivered huge four-digit gains for buy-and-hold investors. Meanwhile, the last time this signal was spotted, in 2022, BTC rallied by 560%.

Interestingly, in these three cases, it took BTC two years to recover to its previous all-time high. If we use that as guidance to predict Bitcoin’s future trajectory, we might see it climbing back to $125,000 or so by April 2028.

This is a long time sure, but you won’t be buying at the peak. Instead, at $77,000, if BTC repeats this historical pattern, that would translate into a two-year upside potential of 64%.

Zooming in on the latest price action, we can see that the price just bounced off the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). This level has acted as a demand zone multiple times in the past. This increases the odds that, at $67,000, BTC has already hit its cycle bottom.

We could expect a 200% to 400% return over the next three years. This means that BTC could rise to at least $280,000 in the long term. This is in line with the price targets that big financial institutions like Standard Chartered have shared recently.

Bitcoin’s Latest Retreat Does Not Invalidate Our Bullish Scenario

Moving down to the daily chart, we can see that the price started to retreat right after hitting $79,000. This could be a normal pullback following a break above what has been a key resistance for months.

However, BTC’s uptrend remains intact. We could get a stronger correction down to around $70,000, but we don’t expect this to be the end of the rally unless market conditions deteriorate.

We could also get a stronger push above $80,000 at some point during the rest of the week, especially as volumes are still quite thin. This means that the selling pressure at $79,000 wasn’t that strong.

If we break past $80K, the next stop should be Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) to complete a reversion to the mean move. This should be followed by a retest of the $85,000 resistance, and that should be the ultimate indicator of whether this is a bear market rally or a true reversal.

Keep in mind that we have identified three indicators outside of price action that favor a bullish action and one major historical signal in a high time frame that has also confirmed three previous cycle bottoms.

Hence, evidence in lower time frames like this week’s mild reversal is not enough to discard what these data points seem to be telling us about Bitcoin’s future.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the daily chart is still above 50, and has not hit overbought territory yet to justify this pullback. The FOMC meeting could be the catalyst that ends up pushing BTC higher in the near term.

Although the central bank may keep rates unchanged, comments from the head of the U.S. central bank, Jerome Powell, tend to move the market’s needle.

Turning to our signals system, the 4-hour chart has flashed two consecutive “sell” instructions at $79,000. Since this retreat formed a double-bottom, we expect this pullback to keep going until BTC hits $74,000 or so.

If that support area holds, that would create an attractive trading opportunity offering a 3x risk-reward ratio. The target for that trade would be the $79K area again, while the stop price would be set at around $72,000.