Bitcoin Price Outlook: 3 Metrics That Could Drive BTC to $130K After Sharp Drop

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by as much as 9.60% after establishing its record high of over $124,500, sparking worries about a potential price drop below $100,000 in the coming days.

At the core of this drop is a broader derisk sentiment ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

Nonetheless, at least three Bitcoin metrics indicate that the price will eventually wipe out its losses entirely, while rallying toward a new record high of $130,000.

Binance’s Bitcoin Spot Demand Rising Against Futures

One of the clearest bullish signals comes from Binance’s spot versus futures dominance.

Historically, futures trading has outweighed spot by a wide margin. Since 2019, the average spot-to-futures ratio has hovered near 0.22, meaning that for every $1 traded on spot, more than $4 went into futures contracts.

However, recent data shows this ratio rising, reflecting both an increase in spot buying and a decline in futures-driven speculation. This change is important because rallies led by spot demand tend to be more sustainable than those driven by leveraged futures bets.

A similar setup occurred in early and late 2023, when stronger spot inflows preceded months-long rallies. The current trend suggests that long-term buyers are stepping back in, potentially laying the foundation for a move toward $130,000.

Most Short-Term BTC Holders Aren’t Locking Profits

The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) measures whether coins sold by short-term investors are in profit (>1), loss (<1), or break-even (≈1).

As of August, with Bitcoin trading near $113,600, SOPR hovers close to 1.0. This equilibrium suggests that the most recent buyers are neither rushing to take profits nor panicking into losses.

Historically, SOPR staying above 1 has supported bullish continuations, as seen during the breakout past $70,000 in early 2024. By contrast, prolonged readings below 1 have marked capitulation phases, such as in early 2023.

Currently, the balance near 1.0 sets the stage for the next decisive move. If SOPR holds above 1, it would confirm healthy profit realization and renewed demand, making a climb toward $120,000–$130,000 likely.

A drop below 1 could delay the rebound, pushing prices toward the $95,000–$100,000 range.

Shark Cohort’s BTC Accumulation Strengthens

Entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, often called the “shark cohort,” include early adopters, trading desks, and institutional investors. Their buying or selling patterns provide key insight into market structure.

Glassnode data shows that this group has recently increased its net position, meaning their combined holdings are growing after months of relative stagnation.

Historically, shark accumulation has preceded major uptrends. For instance, their buying during 2020–2021 coincided with Bitcoin’s rise from $10,000 to nearly $60,000.

When larger holders absorb supply during pullbacks, the market often finds a strong base for the next leg higher. With sharks adding again, BTC appears well-supported for a rebound to $130,000.