XRP News Today: Fed Jitters Overshadow XRPC ETF Inflows

XRP plunged to its key psychological support level on Wednesday, November 19, as selling pressure resumed across the broader crypto market. Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) reported net inflows midweek but failed to provide comfort.

The BTC-spot ETF market weighed sentiment as issuers saw net outflows for a sixth consecutive session on Tuesday, November 18, setting the tone for the Wednesday session.

Bets on a December Fed rate cut dropped below 40% this week, weighing on demand for BTC and BTC-spot ETFs, sending the broader crypto market lower. October’s FOMC Meeting Minutes signaled delays to further rate cuts, adding to the negative sentiment.

Delayed US Data and Waning Fed Rate Cut Bets

The FOMC Meeting Minutes from October increased uncertainty over a December rate cut, weighing on demand for crypto. Policymakers raised concerns about inflation, while noting that the labor market was cooling, not collapsing. A divided Committee on further rate cuts, given the inflation-labor market interplay, sank the chances of a December cut.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate cut fell from 50.1% on November 18 to 32.8% on November 19. For context, the chances of a December cut stood at 93.7% on October 17. XRP has fallen 12.3% since October 17, reflecting the influence of the Fed rate path on investor appetite.

Furthermore, reports of further delays to key US economic reports fueled the selling pressure.

Prominent crypto commentator Paul Barron commented on the shifting sentiment toward the Fed rate path, stating:

“MARKET MELTDOWN: December rate cut odds COLLAPSE to 42% (now 33%). The perfect storm just hit crypto: FOMC Meeting Minutes dropped today, revealing: Fed officials were deeply divided on October’s cut. Many participants said NO MORE cuts needed in 2025. Several warned further cuts risk inflation becoming entrenched.”

Barron also commented on the reports of further delays to key economic data, adding:

“Then the BLS announced October jobs report CANCELLED entirely due to shutdown. November data won’t drop until Dec 16 – AFTER the Fed meeting Dec 9-10. Fed is now driving in the fog without crucial labor market data.”

The US government shutdown and delayed economic data have materially impacted demand for crypto. XRP has tumbled 29% since October 1, the day the government shut down. The government reopening failed to lift sentiment, with delayed reports leaving traders in the dark about the US economy.

XRP ETF Flow Trends Crucial Amid Market Turmoil

While the sliding chances of a Fed rate cut sent XRP toward key support, the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) provided hopes for a near-term recovery.

Canary Capital reported net inflows on Wednesday, November 19, stating:

“Big day five for the XRPC ETF – over $26.5M in trading volume and $13M in net inflows!”

While day five numbers were modest compared to day one, they were positive nonetheless. Wednesday’s data suggested resilient institutional demand ahead of the launches of Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) and Bitwise XRP ETF.

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart announced the imminent launch of the Bitwise XRP ETF, stating:

“Looks like Bitwise Invest is going to launch their XRP ETF tomorrow. The description page on the Bloomberg terminal is up. Ticker will be XRP (elite ticker).’

Analysts expect Franklin Templeton and Bitwise Invest’s XRP ETFs to draw significantly greater inflows than the Canary XRP ETF, given their standings in the ETF space.

According to VettaFi, Franklin Templeton ranks #19 on the ETF issuer Assets Under Management (AUM) league table, with $44.7 billion in AUM. Bitwise Asset Management ranks #56, with $5.58 billion in AUM. The first-to-market XRP-spot ETF issuer, Canary Capital, ranks #231, with just $84.82 million in AUM.

Robust demand for XRPC, XRPZ, and XRP will be crucial for XRP’s near-term price trajectory.

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

XRP slid 4.94% on Wednesday, November 19, reversing the previous day’s 2.49% gain, closing at $2.1083. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which fell 1.84%.

Wednesday’s sell-off left the token trading well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), affirming bearish momentum.

Looking ahead, several events could support a recovery, potentially sending XRP toward $2.5.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.0 and $1.9.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.4547.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.5520.
• Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Sessions Ahead

Near-term price catalysts include:

• Fed speakers and policy signals.
• Franklin XRP ETF and Bitwise XRP ETF launches and flows.
• Blue-chip companies’ views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.1

• Hawkish Fed speakers.
• XRP-spot ETFs report net outflows.
• The US Senate challenges crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies downplay interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.

These bearish scenarios could push XRP toward $2.1 and the lower trendline. If breached, $2.0 would be the next key support level. A break below the $2 psychological support level would expose the $1.9112 support level.

Notably, the lower trendline provided much-needed support in November after failed attempts to break the upper trendline in October. Breaching the lower trendline would signal heavier selling pressure. See the chart below for reference.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $2.5 Remains Challenging

• Dovish FOMC members’ speeches.
• XRP-spot ETFs report strong inflows.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury reserve asset purposes.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the US Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.

A break above the $2.2 resistance level could pave the way toward $2.35. A sustained move through $2.35 would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A breakout from the 50-day EMA could enable the bulls to target $2.5.

Outlook: Near-Term Structure Signals $2.0 as Key Support Level

Fading bets on a December Fed rate cut and delayed US economic data remain near-term headwinds for XRP.

However, strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs could trigger a price recovery, potentially sending the token towards key resistance. Holding above the $2.0 psychological support level will be crucial ahead of the ETF launches.

The next 48 hours could determine whether XRP recovers its loss from the fourth quarter. Crucially, strong inflows into XRP-spot ETFs could see a decoupling from Bitcoin.