Bitcoin Whales Accumulate During Israel-Iran Conflict, Echoing 400% Price Rallies

Bitcoin (BTC) whales are building long positions on Bybit as the Israel–Iran conflict dampens retail sentiment and trading volumes, a pattern that historically preceded major price rallies.

Fractal Points to 2020-like 400% Bitcoin Rally

The 14-day average of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Bybit—which measures the volume of aggressive buy orders relative to sell orders—has climbed sharply in recent weeks, according to CryptoQuant data.

A reading above 1 indicates that buyers are dominating market orders, often reflecting increased confidence among large traders. Historically, sustained spikes in this ratio have occurred near major price bottoms, often preceding strong Bitcoin rebounds.

In May 2020, when BTC was trading for around $8,600, a sustained ratio above 1.05 marked the start of a 400% rally toward $43,000.

A similar event occurred in July 2021, with Bitcoin jumping 130% from $30,000 to $69,000 within three months. In early 2023, whale accumulation at $16,500 preceded a 250% surge to over $58,000.

Bitcoin Deposits to Exchanges Collapse to 10-Year Lows

Adding to growing holding sentiment is a CryptoQuant metric tracking Bitcoin deposits to crypto exchanges.

Notably, the 30-day moving average of exchange depositing addresses has fallen to just 48,000, while the daily count has dropped to 37,000.

That’s a sharp decline from the 2015–2021 era, when deposit activity steadily increased and averaged around 180,000 annually. Over a 10-year span, the average stands closer to 90,000.

This structural shift began after the 2021 market top and has not reversed. Several key factors explain the trend.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has allowed investors to gain price exposure without managing custody or interacting with exchanges.

Meanwhile, a growing share of investors—and now even corporations—are treating Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset rather than a short-term trade.

Bull Flag Formation Hints at $117K Bitcoin Price Target

Adding to the bullish outlook, Bitcoin’s daily chart is flashing a classic bull flag—an established continuation pattern that typically signals a strong upside move.

BTC/USD has consolidated within a downward-sloping parallel channel since late May, following its rally from the $92,000 zone.

The recent rebound from the channel’s lower trendline coincided with a bounce off the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the support confluence near $103,000.

If the bull flag pattern plays out as expected, Bitcoin could break above the flag’s upper trendline with a target near $117,700. This target is derived by adding the height of the flagpole to the breakout point around $103,000.