BTC at Risk of Sub-$28,500 on Hawkish Fed Chatter and ETF Uncertainty

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, BTC fell by 0.36% to end the day at $30,287.
• It was a quiet weekend, with no crypto events to move the dial.
• The 4-hourly technical indicators remained bearish for the near term, signaling a return to sub-$29,000.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.36%. Following a 0.14% loss on Saturday, BTC ended the week down 1.12% to $30,287. Despite the bearish session, BTC avoided sub-$30,000 for the second consecutive session.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.10% to $30,257. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $30,353 before falling into the red.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed a BTC/USD hold above the psychological $30,000 resistance level. BTC/USD also remained above the 50-day ($28,907) and 200-day ($26,345) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and long term.

Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull away from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 57.06 reading signaled a bullish outlook and aligned with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, supporting a run at the lower and upper levels of the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $30,500 psychological level. BTC/USD sits below the 50-day EMA ($30,440) while sitting above the 200-day EMA ($29,320), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, signaling a fall through the 200-day EMA ($29,320) to bring the upper level of the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

BTC/USD must move through the 50-day EMA ($30,440) to support a breakout from the lower level of the resistance band and target $31,250.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 43.39 indicates a moderately bearish stance and aligns with the 50-day EMA, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals near-term bearish momentum and supports a fall through the 200-day EMA to bring the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

Investors Unable to Shake the Fear of the Fed

It was a quiet Sunday session. There were no US economic indicators or crypto events to provide direction.

The lack of market forces left investors to focus on the Fed and the likely policy moves to tame inflation. Despite the softer-than-expected US nonfarm payroll numbers for June, bets on a post-summer rate hike linger, which continues to test buyer appetite.

However, regulation by enforcement and US anti-crypto rhetoric remains a significant headwind that has pegged BTC back from a breakout from $31,500.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Monday session. There are no US economic indicators to consider today. However, Fed chatter will draw interest in the afternoon session, with hawkish commentary likely to influence.

Beyond the US economic calendar, investors should track ETF chatter, with Binance and SEC v Ripple-related news likely to also be focal points.