BTC Bulls Eye $31,000 as Investors Await SEC Decisions on the ETFs

Bob Mason
Updated: Jul 20, 2023, 03:02 GMT+00:00

BTC found support this morning. However, a breakout from the current ranges is unlikely until US lawmakers take steps to rein in the SEC.

BTCUSD technical analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, BTC ended a three-day losing streak, gaining 0.18% to end the day at $30,010.
  • ETF-related news and SEC Chair Gary Gensler testimony on Capitol Hill capped the upside.
  • However, the near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$29,500.

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.18%. Partially reversing a 1.00% loss from Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $30,010. Notably, BTC ended a three-day losing streak.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.28% to $30,094. A choppy start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $29,978 before rising to a high of $30,122.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD hovering below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band but finding support at the $30,000 psychological support level.

BTC/USD remained above the 50-day ($29,405) and 200-day ($26,735) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and longer term. Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull further away from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 50.83 reading signaled a moderately bullish outlook and aligned with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, supporting a move through the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to retarget $31,500.

BTC Daily Chart indicators support a run at $31,500.
BTCUSD 200723 Daily Chart

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $30,000 psychological level. BTC/USD sits below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($30,331) but above the 200-day EMA ($29,827), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$29,500. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($30,331) would support a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $31,500.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 45.81 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$29,500.

4-Hourly Chart sends bearish near-term signals.
BTCUSD 200723 4 Hourly Chart

ETF Uncertainty and SEC Chair Gensler Testimony on Capitol Hill Influence

It was another busy session on Wednesday, with SEC Chair Gary Gensler in the spotlight. In the aftermath of the SEC v Ripple Court rulings, the SEC Chair was on Capitol Hill seeking more funding at the Senate Subcommittee hearing on the fiscal year 2024 budget to tackle the Wild West.

Approval for more funding would enable SEC to continue its regulation by enforcement mantra that leaves the US digital asset space in never-ending regulatory uncertainty.

The SEC has remained silent on plans for a settlement in the SEC v Ripple case or intentions to appeal the Judge Torres ruling on the Programmatic Sales of XRP.

US lawmaker silence was also disappointing for investors hoping for the SEC v Ripple Court ruling to incentivize bipartisan legislation to deliver a clear and robust regulatory framework.

Uncertainty surrounding the spot BTC ETF also tested buyer appetite. On Wednesday, news hit the wires of NASDAQ (NDAQ) u-turning on plans to offer crypto custody services, citing US regulatory risks. The announcement may reduce the likelihood of the SEC approving one, some, or all the ETF applications.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Thursday session, with US economic indicators likely to have a limited impact on BTC and the broader market.

Away from the economic calendar, ETF chatter and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need consideration. However, investors should also track SEC and US lawmaker chatter.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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