BTC Bulls Need ETF Optimism to Mute Fed Fear to Target $31,500

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, BTC slipped by 0.14% to end the day at $30,397.
• It was a quiet start to the weekend, with no crypto events to move the dial after a choppy week.
• The 4-hourly technical indicators remained bearish for the near term, signaling a return to sub-$29,000.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.14%. Following a 1.53% gain on Friday, BTC ended the day at $30,397. Despite the bearish session, BTC avoided sub-$30,000 for the first time in three sessions.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.21% to $30,461. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $30,366 before rising to a high of $30,513.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed a BTC/USD move through the psychological $30,000 resistance level. BTC/USD remained above the 50-day ($28,861) and 200-day ($26,307) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and long term.

Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull away from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 59.22 reading signaled a bullish outlook and aligned with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, supporting a run at the lower and upper levels of the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to test resistance at $31,500.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $30,500 psychological level. BTC/USD sits below the 50-day EMA ($30,466) while sitting above the 200-day EMA ($29,257), sending bearish near-term signals but bullish longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, signaling a fall through the 200-day EMA ($29,257) to bring the upper level of the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

BTC/USD must move through the 50-day EMA ($30,466) to support a breakout from the lower level of the resistance band and target $31,250 and the Thursday high of $31,504.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 50.30 indicates a moderately bullish stance and aligns with the EMAs, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals near-term bullish momentum and supports a move through the 50-day EMA to bring the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band into play.

Investors Grapple with Fed Fear and ETF Hopes

It was a quiet Saturday session, with no US economic indicators or crypto events to move the dial.

Market bets on a July Fed rate hike remained hawkish after a busy week on the US economic calendar. Despite the weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, US wage growth leaves the Fed on target for a 25-basis point interest rate hike.

While Fed Fear remains a crypto headwind, hopes of the SEC approving one, some, or all of the BTC ETF applications provided support.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Sunday session. With no US economic indicators to consider, BTC will remain in the hands of the crypto news wires.

Investors should track ETF chatter, with Binance and SEC v Ripple-related news likely to also be focal points.