BTC Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady as BTC Remains Stuck in a Rut

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.39% to extend the losing streak to three sessions.
• US economic indicators continued supporting hawkish Fed bets, leaving riskier assets in negative territory.
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 23/100 despite the bearish session, reflecting continued investor resilience.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.39%. Following a 1.04% loss on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $19,058. Notably, BTC fell short of $20,000 for the thirteenth consecutive session while falling to sub-$19,000 for the first time in five sessions.

A bearish start to the day saw BTC slide to an early low of $18,900. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,022 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,911.

However, finding early support, BTC rose to an early afternoon high of $19,355. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,302 before returning to sub-$19,100 and into the red.

US economic indicators, Fed monetary policy, and inflation left riskier assets on the back foot. In October, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose from -9.9 to -8.7 versus a forecast of -5.0. While falling short of expectations, components of the Index were upbeat.

The New Orders Index rose from -17.6 to -15.9, with the Prices Paid Index up from 29.8 to 36.3. However, the employment numbers drew greater interest. The Philly Fed Employment Index jumped from 12.0 to 28.5.

Jobless claims also impressed, with a fall from 226k to 214k in the week ending October 14.

For the Fed, the labor market numbers provide further reason to front load rate hikes. The markets responded, with the probability of a December rate hike rising to 77.0% this week. According to the FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a December rate hike had stood at 61.6% one week earlier.

The NASDAQ 100 fell by 0.61%, the downside limited by upbeat corporate earnings results. Things were not much better this morning, with the NASDAQ Mini down 65 points. Later today, there will be no US economic indicators to provide direction, leaving Fed chatter to influence.

The Fear & Greed Index Defies Gravity as BTC Falls Again

Today, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 23/100 for a second session. The Index defied gravity for a third session, with BTC recovering to $19,000 likely to be a factor.

While Fed fear continues to grip the crypto world, the markets are resigned to 75-basis point rate hikes in November and December. The Index could break out of the Extreme Fear zone should bets of a hawkish December move subside.

However, the latest US economic indicators support a more aggressive rate path to bring inflation to target.

For the bulls, the Index will need to continue avoiding sub-20/100 to support a shift in sentiment. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.06% to $19,046. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $19,013 before rising to a high of $19,072.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $19,104 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,309 and the Thursday high of $19,355. BTC would need the support of the NASDAQ 100 Mini to return to $19,300. However, for a breakout from recent ranges, FOMC member chatter would have to be less hawkish,

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,559 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $20,014.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,854 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,649 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,194.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,273.

The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA to deliver bearish signals.

BTC needs to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,273) and R1 ($19,309) to target the 100-day EMA ($19,348) and R2 ($19,559). The 200-day EMA sits at $19,566. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($19,273) would leave S1 ($18,854) in play.