BTC Holds above $100k as Institutional Demand Rebounds
On Saturday, January 18, BTC slipped by 0.15%, partially reversing Friday’s 3.94% rally, closing at $103,580. Significantly, BTC held above the critical $100k psychological level for the second consecutive session.
ETF Market Flows Surge Amid Speculation on Trump’s Crypto Policies
The US BTC-spot ETF market showed strong investor confidence ahead of Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Speculation about a potential US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) intensified, while SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s departure fueled spot ETF demand.
According to Farside Investors:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows of $745.7 million in the week ending January 17.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $680.2 million.
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net inflows exceeding $200 million each.
Nine of the twelve issuers reported positive contributions to total net inflows. Excluding Friday’s data for ARKB, the US BTC-spot ETF market registered total net inflows of $1,862.9 million, the largest since mid-December
Trump’s Pro-Crypto Agenda Could Boost BTC Demand
On Friday, January 17, Massachusetts became the eighth state to propose legislation for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). State-level demand for an SBR could expedite the creation of a national SBR, potentially driving BTC to unprecedented levels.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Every new Bitcoin analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Bitcoin forecastsSenator Cynthia Lummis also fueled speculation about a US SBR on Friday, saying,
“Working hard to get the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and comprehensive digital asset legislation across the finish line.”
In December, Senator Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US government acquire one million BTC, 5% of the total supply, over five years, with a mandatory 20-year holding period. A US SBR would tilt the supply-demand balance firmly in BTC’s favor.
Expectations of Trump repealing President Biden’s veto of the SEC’s SAB 121 regulation vote may amplify BTC demand.
Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121) is an SEC requirement for companies, including banks, to hold crypto assets on their balance sheets even if they hold the cryptos under customer custody. The regulation makes it expensive for banks to hold crypto under custody for clients, limiting crypto services and BTC demand.
Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
Despite Saturday’s drop, BTC sits well above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bullish price signals.
A breakout from $105k could signal a move toward the all-time high of $108,231. A break above $108,231 may enable the bulls to target $110k next.
Investors should consider US government-related news and US BTC-spot ETF market-related news.
Conversely, a BTC drop below $100k could signal a fall toward the 50-day EMA. A break below the 50-day EMA may enable the bears to target the $90,742 support level.
With a 64.02 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, BTC may break above its all-time high before approaching overbought territory (RSI above 70).
Explore real-time BTC price data and indicators here to stay ahead of market trends.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH, currently the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, remains below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirm bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
An ETH breakout from the $3,287 resistance level could signal a move toward the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA could enable the bulls to target the $3,563 resistance level next.
ETH-spot ETF flow trends remain crucial to near-term price moves.
Conversely, a drop below the 200-day EMA could bring the sub-$3,000 and the $2,815 support level into play.
The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 45.58, suggests ETH could break below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).
Stay Informed on Crypto Trends
Monitor BTC’s journey toward $110k and ETH’s short-term price shifts. Track key drivers, including ETF inflows, macroeconomic data, and regulatory developments here, to navigate the changing crypto landscape effectively.
