Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – November 21, 2016 Forecast

December Comex Gold futures are trading higher shortly before the New York opening. Traders are reacting to the weaker U.S. Dollar. Keep in mind that this is a holiday-shortened week that is often highlighted by below average volume and volatility. This makes gold ripe for a counter-trend move.

Due to the lack of fresh economic data, the absence of Fed commentary and a slow Treasury market trade, the major banks and hedge funds are expected to be on the sidelines most of this week. Today’s volume may be the highest for the week since historically, it has been known to taper-off into Thursday’s holiday.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1233.10 will turn the main trend to up. A move through $1217.50 will make $1201.30 a new minor bottom. The downtrend will resume on a move through $1201.30.

The major 50% level at $1218.50 is the first potential upside target. Crossing to the strong side of this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

The new main range is $1338.30 to $1201.30. If the trend changes to up on a move through $1233.10 then it may create enough upside potential to challenge its retracement zone at $1269.80 to $1286.00.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1215.40 and the early price action, look for the upside momentum to continue on a sustained move over $1218.50. This could fuel a rally into the main top at $1233.10.

There is room to the upside on a sustained move over $1233.10. The next two potential targets are the 50% level at $1269.80 and the downtrending angle at $1274.30.

Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at $1210.30 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the market into Friday’s low at $1201.30. This is a possible trigger point for an acceleration into the major Fibonacci level at $1179.30.

The breakout levels have been identified, however, if volume is below average it will be difficult to take them out with any conviction unless a wave of huge buying or selling comes into the market.

Gold Fundamental Forecast