Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 13, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 12, 2015, 12:35 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil recovered 55 cents to trade at 43.63 as the US dollar tumbled making the commodity more attractive at its lowest

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 13, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil recovered 55 cents to trade at 43.63 as the US dollar tumbled making the commodity more attractive at its lowest prices. Brent Oil added 62 cents to trade at 50.33. A devalued yuan makes China’s oil imports more expensive because oil trades in dollars. China’s central bank said it was trying to make the midpoint more market based. The devaluation comes more than 10 years after China started a process to lift the value of its currency.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report that the cartel’s production rose 101,000 b/d to 31.5 million b/d during July

“US production remains near the highest level in 4 decades although the commodity price is telling the US shale sector to shrink,” OPEC said in its report, which also forecast US production will rise this year and next year.

OPEC representatives said there is no proposal for any emergency meeting before the scheduled Dec. 4 meeting.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration pushed its 2016 crude oil forecast lower Tuesday, as shaky global growth and higher production sent U.S. crude oil futures below the lowest closing price in six-years in midday trading.

The federal Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook that it had lowered its 2016 forecast price for U.S. benchmark oil by $8 to $54 per barrel in 2016 and its 2015 forecast by $6 to $49 per barrel. The administration said it expects Brent, the global benchmark, to average about $59 per barrel in 2016 and about $54 per barrel in 2015.

“The recent price declines reflect concerns about lower economic growth in emerging markets, expectations of higher oil exports from Iran, and continuing actual and expected growth in global inventories,” the agency said in its analysis.

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Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual		Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	-0.847M	-1.800M		-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Aug)	7.8%			-3.2%
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)	0.6%	0.6%		0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)	1.1%	0.8%		0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index	0.3%	0.1%		-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)	11.2%	11.5%		11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)	6.0%	6.6%		6.8%
GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)	2.4%	2.8%		3.2%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)	-4.9K	1.5K		0.2K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)	5.6%	5.6%		5.6%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)	-0.4%	-0.2%		-0.4%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 14, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Core Retail Sales (QoQ)		0.7%	2.9%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.5%	0.3%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)		1.0%	1.0%
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Jul)		-0.6%	0.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.4%	0.4%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Jul)		0.1%	0.4%
CAD	Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jun)		2.1%	0.1%
USD	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)		0.3%	0.3%
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)		93.5	93.1